亚洲各地石油需求复苏不平衡使油价承压

    中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社6月11日报道，亚洲各地的燃料需求正在逐渐好转，但这个全球最大石油进口地区的多数经济体似乎不太可能复制中国的快速复苏。

    今年2月，中国经济基本上处于停滞状态，5月中旬，中国的消费水平已回到去年同期水平。虽然就疫情的影响而言，其他国家较中国要晚几个月，但燃油消费的反弹速度并没有中国那么快。

    日本5月份汽油需求仍较上年同期下降27%，而韩国汽油加工商的开工率比平时低了5至 10个百分点。上月，印度柴油销量同比下降近三分之一。

    中国及时控制疫情，使其经济得以更快地反弹，这是造成这种差异的原因之一。相比之下，由于布伦特原油价格自4月份以来翻了一番，亚洲各地的加工商现在不得不努力应对利润率下降的危机。

    牛津能源研究所(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies)中国能源项目主任米哈尔梅丹(Michal Meidan)表示:“原油价格的上涨肯定是受到东部地区购买活动的推动，炼油商囤积了30美元/桶的石油。但我认为市场有点超前了复苏可能是渐进的，尽管东南亚的驱动力开始回升。”

    需求反弹步伐的区域不平衡表明，除非消费明显回升，否则石油市场将很难从目前水平恢复。全球基准布伦特原油有望出现七周来的首次单周下跌现象。

    洪伟立 摘译自 彭博社

    原文如下：

    Asia’s Uneven Oil Demand Recovery Shows Rally Faces Hurdles

    Fuel demand is on the mend across Asia as nations emerge from coronavirus lockdowns, but most economies in the world’s biggest oil-importing region appear unlikely to replicate China’s rapid recovery.

    Chinese consumption was already back at similar levels to a year earlier in mid-May after the country was largely shut down in February. While other nations are generally a couple of months behind China in terms of the impact from the pandemic, fuel consumption isn’t snapping back as fast.

    Japanese gasoline demand was still down 27% in May from a year earlier, while South Korean processors are operating at rates that are 5 to 10 percentage points lower than usual. Indian diesel sales were nearly a third lower last month on a year-on-year basis.

    The drastic steps taken by China to contain the virus, which allowed its economy to bounce back faster, are one reason for the disparities. Chinese refiners also benefited from a domestic floor price that boosted margins relative to their peers. By contrast, with Brent prices doubling since April processors across Asia are now having to grapple with depressed margins.

    “The crude story is certainly picking up on buying activity in the East, as refiners have stocked up on $30 dollar oil,” said Michal Meidan, director of the China Energy Program at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. “But I think the market is getting ahead of itself slightly” and the recovery is likely to be gradual even as driving starts to pick up again in Southeast Asia, she said.

    The uneven pace of the rebound suggests that oil will find it tougher to rally from here unless consumption picks up markedly. Brent crude, the global benchmark, is on track for its first weekly drop in seven weeks.