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| 2020-07-01 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻网站6月28日消息 波士顿咨询集团（BCG）在一份最新报告中称，如果全球经济不能从疫情中迅速复苏，化石燃料需求可能在2019年达到峰值，从而使化石燃料需求高峰提前10多年到来。 根据波士顿咨询公司最近的研究，随着全球COVID-19大流行的短期经济影响越来越明显，这场危机可能会对全球能源市场产生重大的长期影响。波士顿咨询公司题为《我们是否已经过化石燃料的峰值需求？》的报告探索了未来10年的能源情景。 波士顿咨询公司对代表V型、U型和L型复苏的三种经济情景的未来能源需求和能源结构的分析表明，当前危机极有可能在未来10年内大大减缓世界化石燃料需求。在经济复苏放缓、化石燃料向可再生能源过渡适度加快的情况下，正如许多国家目前推出的“绿色复苏”措施所建议的那样，需求永远不会恢复到2019年水平以上。 王磊 摘译自 油气新闻 原文如下： Covid-19: Fossil fuel demand may have peaked in 2019 Fossil fuel demand may have permanently peaked in 2019 if the global economy does not recover rapidly from the coronavirus pandemic, accelerating the arrival of peak fossil fuel demand by more than a decade, said the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in a new report. As the short-term economic fallout of the global COVID-19 pandemic becomes increasingly visible, according to recent research by BCG, which suggests that the crisis may have a significant long-term impact on global energy markets. BCG’s article titled “Have We Passed Peak Demand for Fossil Fuels?” explores energy scenarios through 2030. BCG’s analysis of the future energy demand and energy mix for three economic scenarios, representing V-, U-, and L-shaped recoveries, points to a high likelihood that the current crisis will significantly slow world fossil fuel demand over the coming decade. In a scenario combining slower economic recovery with moderate acceleration of the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, as suggested by the “green recovery” measures currently introduced in many countries, demand would never recover beyond 2019 levels. |
