澳大利亚液化天然气出口收益将下降

    中国石化新闻网讯 据6月29日Offshore Energy报道，澳大利亚工业、科学、能源和资源部在其资源和能源季度报告中指出，在2009年至2012年期间，澳大利亚最新一轮的液化天然气投资中，七个新的液化天然气项目获得了超过2000亿美元的投资。

    这些项目的增加使澳大利亚2019年的液化天然气额定产能达到8800万吨，出口量达到7700万吨，价值490亿美元。这使得澳大利亚在2019年成为世界上最大的液化天然气出口国。

    2020年4月，壳牌(Shell)获得了昆士兰苏拉特天然气项目的最终投资决定（FID），预计2021年将销售第一批天然气。该项目的天然气将在澳大利亚国内销售，并通过格拉德斯通的QCLNG工厂出口。

    该项目的最终投资决定与当前的趋势形成鲜明对比。澳大利亚液化天然气项目下一波投资的前景并不明朗，低油价导致资本支出减少和FID延期。

    首席经济学家们强调，在撰写报告时，四个天然气和液化天然气项目的FID已被标记为延期。报告称，对于澳大利亚的液化天然气出口来说，这些FID的延期可能是一个长期问题，因为新气田的开发对液化天然气项目的开发恢复是必要的。

    西北陆架项目的产量可能从2022年开始下降，这就需要从Browse盆地项目的Calliance、Torosa和Brecknock气田或者其他气田进行填补。

    Browse盆地项目的FID最初从2020年底推迟到2021年底，后来由于低油价使其具体日期变得不确定。

    洪伟立 摘译自Offshore Energy

    原文如下：

    Australia: LNG export earnings forecast to dip

    In its Resources and Energy Quarterly report, Australia’s Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, noted that the latest wave of LNG investment in Australia saw over US$200 billion invested in seven new LNG projects, commissioned between 2009 and 2012.

    The ramp-up of these projects has seen Australia’s annual LNG nameplate capacity reach 88 million tonnes in 2019, and LNG export volumes reach 77 million tonnes worth $49 billion. This has made Australia the world’s largest LNG exporter in 2019.

    In April 2020, Arrow Energy, Shell took a positive FID on the Surat gas project in Queensland, with first gas sales expected in 2021. Gas from the project will be sold domestically and exported through the QCLNG plant at Gladstone.

    The Arrow Energy FID stands in contrast to current trends. The outlook for the next wave of investment in Australian LNG projects is shrouded by considerable uncertainty, with low oil prices resulting in capital expenditure reductions and FID deferrals.

    The Office of the Chief Economist stressed that at the time of writing the report, FIDs for four gas and LNG projects had been flagged for deferral.

    These FID postponements could be a longer-term issue for Australia’s LNG exports, as new gas field developments are necessary to backfill LNG projects, the report reads.

    Production at the North West Shelf project is likely to decline from about 2022 onwards, requiring backfill from the Browse Basin project fields of Calliance, Torosa and Brecknock, or a combination of other fields.

    The FID for the Browse Basin project was initially delayed from late 2020 to late 2021, and has since been delayed to an unspecified date, due to low oil prices.