石油市场仍然不稳定

    中国石化新闻网讯 据7月17日Rigzone报道，投资银行杰弗里斯（Jefferies）一份新的研究报告显示，当前石油市场仍不稳定。该银行认为，近期内，由于需求风险和欧佩克+放松减产，油价风险下行。并补充道，由于石油库存较高，且闲置产能接近每天1100万桶，布伦特原油价格在2021年下半年之前不太可能保持在每桶50美元以上。

    但杰弗里斯强调，若油价跌破每桶40美元，预计欧佩克将减少市场供应。尽管近期存在价格风险，但经济活动水平较低，美国是由产量将继续下降。因此，该银行将2020年下半年布伦特原油价格预期从每桶37美元上调至43美元。

    杰弗里斯在报告中承认，当前宏观环境“仍然困难”，但表示，布伦特原油价格就目前看来不太可能长期低于30美元/桶。

    8月，欧佩克+将放宽自5月以来的近1000万桶/天的减产幅度。然而，沙特能源部长、JMMC主席阿卜杜勒•阿齐兹•本•萨勒曼(Abdul Aziz Bin Salman)表示，进入国际市场的额外供应“将几乎感觉不到”。

    本月早些时候，Rystad Energy指出，第二波疫情可能导致2020年石油需求降至8650万桶/天。Rystad目前对今年石油需求的预测是8900万桶/天，而2019年的石油总需求约为9950万桶/天。

    洪伟立 摘译自 Rigzone

    原文如下：

    Oil Market Fundamentals Remain Precarious

    That’s according to a new research note from investment bank Jefferies, which was sent to Rigzone on Thursday.

    Jefferies believes that, in the near term, oil price risk is skewed to the downside by Covid-19 demand risks and OPEC+ easing production cuts, the research note outlined. The company added in the note that very high inventories and spare capacity approaching 11 million barrels per day makes it unlikely that Brent can hold above $50 per barrel until the latter half of 2021.

    Jefferies did however highlight that it expects OPEC+ will take incremental oil off the market if prices move below $40 per barrel and added that it expects

    U.S. production declines to continue “given low activity levels”. As a result, the company raised its second half 2020 Brent forecast to $43 per barrel from $37 per barrel, “despite the near-term price risks”.

    In the note, Jefferies conceded that the macro environment “remains difficult” but noted that a prolonged period of sub-$30 Brent “now seems unlikely”.

    In August, the OPEC+ group is set to ease its production cuts from the near 10 million barrel per day (MMbpd) figure that has been in place since May. The additional supply reaching international markets “will be barely felt”, however, according to Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy and Chairman of the JMMC, Abdul Aziz Bin Salman.

    Earlier this month, Rystad Energy outlined that a second wave of the coronavirus could see oil demand drop to 86.5MMbpd in 2020. Rystad’s current base case estimate for oil demand this year is 89MMbpd. The company estimates that total oil demand in 2019 was approximately 99.5MMbpd.