危机可能加速卡塔尔第二轮天然气繁荣

    中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价网站7月20日消息 据《海湾时报》援引普华永道在一份报告中称，当前的能源市场危机可能使卡塔尔受益，并推动第二轮天然气繁荣。

    三年前，全球最大的液化天然气出口国取消了对其与邻国共享的北部海上油田的暂停开采令市场大吃一惊。2019年，卡塔尔随后表示，到2027年，将把液化天然气产量从目前的7700万吨提高到1.26亿吨。这一决定的动机似乎既有液化天然气需求的增长，也有竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自澳大利亚和美国项目的竞争。

    今年2月，在全球供应过剩导致液化天然气价格暴跌的情况下，该国决定推迟北方油田的扩建，但到2027年的计划仍然有效。现在，卡塔尔将从这种过剩中获益。

    普华永道在报告中表示：“多年来最重要的经济发展是卡塔尔石油公司在11月出人意料地宣布，新的评估扩大了对北部油田地理范围和产量的估计。经过这些新的评估，北气田作为世界上最大的气田也被发现向陆地延伸，其储量估计翻了一番，达到1760万亿立方英尺天然气和700亿桶凝析油。

    与此同时，由于价格低迷，许多私营企业，尤其是美国的私营企业，被迫推迟更多液化天然气产能的建设。除非天然气价格很快提高，一些预计的设施可能永远见不到曙光。在这种背景下，随着竞争的萎缩，卡塔尔将赢得更多的市场份额，因为它仍然是最廉价的液化天然气生产国。

    普华永道分析师在报告中称：“即使按照目前的产量水平，国际货币基金组织和评级机构的分析结果显示，卡塔尔的保本油价为该地区最低。财政部长表示，即使在新的液化天然气产能投产之前，盈亏平衡价格也应在2022年后进一步降至40美元以下。”

    王磊 摘译自 今日油价

    原文如下：

    Crisis Fuels Qatar’s New Gas Boom

    The current energy market crisis could benefit Qatar and fuel a second gas boom, PwC said in a report, as cited by the Gulf Times.

    The world’s top exporter of liquefied natural gas three years ago surprised markets by lifting a drilling moratorium from the offshore North Field, which it shares with its neighbor. In 2019, Qatar then said it would boost LNG production from 77 million tons currently to 126 million tons by 2027. The decision seemed to be motivated both by growing demand for LNG and also growing competition, notably from Australian and U.S. projects.

    In February this year, the country decided to delay the North Field expansion amid the slump in LNG prices driven by a global oversupply, but the plan through 2027 remained. Now, Qatar is set to benefit from this glut.

    “The most important economic development in many years was the surprise announcement by Qatar Petroleum in November that new appraisals had extended estimates of both the geographic scope and volume of North Field,” PwC said in its report. As a result of these new appraisals, the North Field—the largest gas field in the world—has been found to extend onshore as well, with reserve estimates doubled to 1,760 trillion cu ft of gas and 70 billion barrels of condensates.

    Meanwhile, many private companies, especially in the United States, are being forced to delay the construction of more LNG capacity because of the price depression. Some projected facilities may never see the light of day unless gas prices improve soon. Against this background, Qatar will win more market share as the competition shrinks, as it remains the cheapest LNG producer.

    “Even at current production levels, analysis from the IMF and ratings agencies give Qatar the lowest breakeven oil price in the region and the Minister of Finance has said the breakeven price should fall further to under $40 after 2022, even before the new LNG capacity comes online,” PwC analysts said in the report.