IMF：今年全球石油需求或将减少8%

    中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2020年8月4日伦敦报道，国际货币基金组织(IMF)近日在一份新更新报告中称，新冠病毒疫情危机将导致今年全球石油需求同比下降大约8%。

    IMF在其题为《全球失衡和COVID-19危机》的对外报告中说，今年油价将比去年低41%。IMF表示，低油价对各经济体石油贸易平衡的直接影响将有所不同，这反映了各经济体对石油进出口的依赖。

    IMF对今年全球石油需求下降的预测与国际能源署(IEA)和石油输出国组织(欧佩克)等其他预测机构的预测一致。

    IEA在7月最新石油市场报告中称，今年全球石油日需求料将减少790万桶，但该预测略高于6月810万桶的日需求降幅。

    然而，IEA指出，最近新冠肺炎确证病例数的激增以及一些国家恢复部分封锁，继续加剧了今年全球石油需求的不确定性。

    IEA称，今年全球平均石油消费量预计将为9210万桶/天，而其在此前预计的需求为1亿桶/天。

    欧佩克预计，今年全球石油总需求将减少890万桶/天，明年将增加700万桶/天，但仍将低于去年的需求。

    IMF在其更新报告中指出，在新冠病毒疫情大流行后的油价暴跌和减产将严重打击中东和北非地区(MENA)的石油出口国，与去年相比，这些石油出口国今年组合石油收入预计将大幅减少2700亿美元。

    李峻 编译自 油价网

    原文如下：

    IMF: Global Oil Demand Will Shrink By 8% In 2020

    The coronavirus crisis will lead to global oil demand dropping by around 8 percent this year compared to last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a new report, as carried by Qatari daily The Penunsula.

    This year, oil prices will be 41 percent lower than in 2019, the IMF said in its ‘Global imbalances and the COVID-19 crisis’ external report. The direct impact of the low oil prices on oil trade balances will vary across economies, reflecting their dependence on oil exports and imports, according to the IMF.

    The fund’s estimates for this year’s global oil demand decline are in line with other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC.

    Last month, the IEA said in its latest Oil Market Report that global oil demand was set to crash by 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, but this forecast is slightly more optimistic than last month’s expectation of an 8.1-million-bpd demand drop.

    The IEA, however, noted that the recent rise in COVID-19 cases and the reinstating of partial lockdowns in some countries continue to contribute to the uncertainty surrounding the world’s global oil demand in 2020.

    This year, the world is expected to consume an average of 92.1 million bpd of oil, compared to the typical demand of 100 million bpd, the IEA said.

    OPEC, for its part, expects overall global oil demand to drop by 8.9 million bpd in 2020, before rising by 7 million bpd in 2021, when it will still be lower than demand in 2019.

    The oil price plunge and the production cuts after the coronavirus pandemic will hit oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) hard, with the combined oil income for those countries expected to plummet by US$270 billion this year compared to 2019, the IMF said in its latest update on the region last month.