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| 2020-08-18 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据8月13日Investing.com报道，第二季度对石油公司来说十分不利。行业巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙报告其损失数十亿美元。就连世界上最赚钱的石油公司沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司的利润也比去年同期下降了73%。 这一切都是意料之中的，因为沙特阿拉伯4月份的生产过剩政策导致石油供应飙升，同时油价下跌，加上为应对冠状病毒大流行而实施的经济封锁大幅削减了石油需求。 鉴于此，有两个重要问题需要考虑，一是，既然沙特阿拉伯已恢复正常生产水平，各国市场都在重新开放，油价还能恢复多少?二是，石油公司在2020年下半年的表现还能恢复多少? 沙特阿美在周一的财报电话会议上对今年下半年的业绩表示非常乐观。据首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔称，这家能源巨头正依靠亚洲不断增长的石油需求来帮助其恢复下半年的利润。从表面上看，这似乎是个不错的策略。亚洲的石油需求在2020年初出现了最大降幅，并在3月和4月开始复苏，当时欧洲和北美的石油需求跌至最低点。 沙特阿美的原油销售业务有70%-75%都销往亚洲，因此该公司旨在从亚洲日益增长的石油需求中获得更多利益。然而，这种前景存在一个严重的问题。即石油是一种全球性的商品，亚洲的需求并不是决定全球油价的最重要因素。尽管中国的需求在过去几个月里不断增长，但油价仍保持相当稳定，在过去两个半月里仅在每桶40美元至45美元的区间内小幅波动。 如果全球来看市场价格不上涨，沙特阿美将难以提高石油官方售价。 此外，沙特阿拉伯承诺削减欧佩克石油产量，这对沙特阿美带来较大影响。沙特阿美的生产成本低廉，以至于即使油价下跌，该公司也可以通过向亚洲销售更多石油来提高利润。不过，由于沙特阿拉伯承诺将其原油日产量维持在900万桶，除非沙特阿美减少自己的库存，否则它无法增加对中国的销售。 美国和欧洲的石油需求前景依然喜忧参半，有迹象显示石油需求正在改善，但增长温和。上周，美国的炼油厂利用率提高到80%，尽管这一数字在一定程度上归因于炼油企业的变化，原油库存减少了450万桶。不过，汽油库存总量上周增加了70万桶。原油、汽油和柴油库存都远高于以往这个时期的平均水平。 在欧洲，英国报告称，已陷入全球经济中最严重的衰退状况。即使政府不再抑制经济活动，这些政策导致的衰退仍将继续对石油需求产生负面影响，并可能使价格持续低迷，尽管亚洲经济活动仍在继续。 控制产量不足将油价推升至每桶40美元至45美元区间上限。除非出现供应大幅缩减，否则将需要出现异常的需求消息，才能看到价格大幅上涨。然而，主要的石油消费国刚刚开始着手处理经济状况，而且他们还没有克服对病毒的恐惧，因此很难想象在不久的将来需求会增长。 石油公司在下半年的表现会更好，因为3月和4月是糟糕透顶的月份。然而，如果油价没有上涨，而且需求没有大幅增加，投资者就不应期待好消息。 王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com 原文如下： Oil Stocks: How Much Recovery Can We Expect In The Rest Of 2020? The second quarter was bad for oil companies. Industry giants like Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron (NYSE:CVX) reported losses in the billions of dollars. Even Saudi Aramco (SE:2222), the most profitable oil company in the world, reported a 73% decline in profit compared to the same quarter last year. All of this was expected since Saudi Arabia’s overproduction policy in April sent oil supply soaring while lowering oil prices, all while the economic lockdowns in response to the coronavirus pandemic decimated oil demand. Given these developments, there are two important questions to consider: How much can oil prices recover now that Saudi Arabia has returned to normal production levels and countries are reopening? How much better can oil companies perform in the second half of 2020? Saudi Aramco offered a very positive view for the second half of the year in its earnings call on Monday. According to CEO Amin Nasser, the energy giant is banking on growing oil demand in Asia to help it recover profits in H2. On the face of it, this seems like a good strategy. Asia, in particular China, saw its greatest drop in oil demand at the beginning of 2020 and was already starting to recover in March and April, when Europe and North America’s oil demand hit its lowest point. 70-75% of Saudi Aramco’s crude oil sales head to Asia, so the company is set up to benefit more from rising Asian oil demand. However, there is a serious problem with this outlook. Oil is a global commodity, and Asian demand is not the most important factor in setting the global oil price. Even with demand from China growing over the past few months, oil prices have remained remarkably stable, moving only slightly within the $40-$45 range, over the past two and half months. The United States is the largest oil consumer and the largest economic power in the world, so economic and oil demand news from the U.S. tend to play a larger role in setting global oil prices than information about Chinese demand or Chinese economic growth does. If the market price doesn’t rise, Aramco will have difficulty raising its OSPs. In addition, Aramco is hamstrung by Saudi Arabia’s commitment to OPEC+ production cuts. Aramco’s cost of production is so inexpensive that even when the price of oil is down, Aramco can lift its profit by selling more oil to Asia. China, in particular, has been keen to purchase more oil for storage when the price is low. However, because Saudi Arabia is committed to keeping its oil production at 9 million bpd, Aramco can’t increase its sales to China unless it draws down its own inventories. Oil demand outlook in the United States and Europe remains mixed with some indications that it's improving, but the growth is modest. Refinery utilization in the United States improved last week to 80% (though this number can be attributed partially to a change in the set of refineries included) and crude oil inventories declined by 4.5 million barrels. However, total motor gasoline inventories increased by 700,000 barrels last week. Crude oil, gasoline and diesel inventories all remain well above average for this time of year. In Europe, the UK reported that it has fallen into the deepest recession of any global economy. Even with governments no longer stifling economic activity, the recession caused by these policies will continue to negatively impact oil demand and likely keep prices depressed despite activity in Asia. Reining in production was not enough to raise prices above the $40-$45 range. Barring a supply catastrophe, we will need exceptional demand news to see a significant jump in prices. However, the major consumers of oil are just starting to come to grips with their economic conditions, and they still have yet to overcome fears of the virus, so it is hard to imagine demand growth in the immediate future. Oil companies will do better in H2, because March and April were shockingly bad months. However, without higher prices and without the demand to sell markedly more oil, investors should not expect great news. |
