IEA下调全球石油需求预期

    中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社8月13日报道，国际能源署(IEA)下调了对全球石油需求的预期，原因是航空业受冠状病毒危机影响的程度超过了此前的预期。

    IEA几乎下调了至2021年底的各个季度的油价预期，其中今年下半年的下调幅度最大。该公司在一份月度报告中表示，7月份的航空客运量比去年同期下降了三分之二。7月份通常是假期出行的高峰期。

    IEA表示，最近几周，随着冠状病毒的传播蔓延，航空燃料需求的前景已经恶化。

    与此同时，上个月全球原油供应增加，原因是沙特阿拉伯逐步取消了为抵消需求损失而进行的最大幅度减产措施，同时油价上涨使美国和加拿大恢复了部分业务。

    IEA称，尽管下调了需求预期，但随着消费从在部分地区复苏，全球市场在今年剩余时间内供应会吃紧，而沙特阿拉伯和其他欧佩克国家则会控制产量。在伦敦，国际原油价格本周攀升至每桶45美元以上的5个月高点。

    该机构将今年最后两个季度的全球石油需求预期下调了50万桶/天，并预计同期的平均消费量将为9525万桶/天。航空燃油和煤油下半年的日需求量预期下调38万桶，令今年的日需求量下降310万桶，至480万桶。

    随着美国和加拿大恢复停产供应，国际能源署还将欧佩克以外地区下半年的原油日供应量预期提高了约50万桶。因此，市场供应在今年剩余时间不会像预期的那样大幅收紧，但仍会有所削减。

    自6月以来，需求一直高于供应，而随着欧佩克及其合作伙伴加紧限制产量，今年最后4个月全球库存应会以每天约400万桶的速度减少。这应该会部分削减上半年累积的巨额库存盈余。

    王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社

    原文如下：

    IEA Cuts Oil-Demand Forecasts as Air Travel Outlook Darkens

    The International Energy Agency cut forecasts for global oil demand as air travel suffers from the coronavirus crisis even more than previously expected.

    The IEA reduced estimates for almost every quarter through to the end of 2021, with the second half of this year taking the steepest downgrades. Air travel remained two-thirds lower than last year in July, normally a peak month because of holiday flying, it said in a monthly report.

    “The outlook for jet fuel demand has worsened in recent weeks as the coronavirus has spread more widely,” said the Paris-based agency, which advises most major economies on energy policy.

    At the same time, global crude supplies increased last month as Saudi Arabia phased out some of the steepest production cuts it’s been making to offset the demand loss, and as improving prices helped the U.S. and Canada revive some operations.

    Despite the downgrades, world markets should tighten during the rest of the year as consumption recovers from the depths of the pandemic, while Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations keep output in check, the IEA said. International crude prices climbed to a five-month high above $45 a barrel in London this week.

    The agency cut global demand estimates for the last two quarters of this year by 500,000 barrels a day, projecting that consumption will average 95.25 million barrels a day in the period.

    The second-half forecast for jet fuel and kerosene was cut by 380,000 barrels a day, putting demand on track to fall 3.1 million barrels a day this year to 4.8 million a day.

    The IEA also boosted projections for supplies outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in the second half by about 500,000 barrels a day, as the U.S. and Canada restore halted production.

    As a result, the market won’t tighten during the rest of the year as sharply as anticipated, but it will still tighten.

    Demand has been above supply since June, and as OPEC and its partners press on with output curbs, world inventories ought to deplete at a rate of about 4 million barrels a day in the last four months of the year. That should pare some of the gigantic stockpile surplus that built up in the first half.