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| 2020-08-21 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据8月18日IHS Markit消息：俄罗斯目前正在增加原油和凝析油的产量，但海运出口在8月上半月保持不变。8月初的日产量已接近980万桶，而7月日产量不足940万桶。自从欧佩克决定缓和减产，俄罗斯计划将其原油日产量增加40万桶。该协议不包括凝析油的产量，通常在每天70万至80万桶之间。 运往欧洲的出货量一直承受压力，出货量已降至创纪录的低水平。IHS Markit大宗商品公司的数据显示，7月大宗商品交易活动同比下降42%，自6月以来下降14%。8月上半月的货运量比7月下降10%，比去年同期下降34%。到目前为止，其他供应商一直在迅速填补这一缺口，但俄罗斯自8月初以来的增产可能会终结这一趋势。 与此同时，在经历了三个月的低迷期之后，从美国流向欧洲进口商的原油在7月迅速增加。上月货物运输量自2020年3月以来首次突破120万桶/天，而8月上半月货物运输量保持在100万桶/天以上。北欧一直在吸收大部分此类原油，因为炼油厂更青睐美国原油，而不是俄罗斯的乌拉尔原油。 另一个有趣的进展是，从俄罗斯流向美国的精炼产品最近出现了增长。然而，贸易似乎遵循季节性，因为8月通常是成品油从俄罗斯流向美国的强劲月份。IHS Markit大宗商品公司的数据显示，1月至7月间的平均清洁产品流量高于2019年，2020年8月迄今为止的货运量也高于2019年8月。 冯娟 摘译自 IHS Markit 原文如下: Russia exporting less crude oil to Europe, but probably not for long Russia is now increasing its crude oil and condensate output, but seaborne exports remained unchanged in first half of August. Production has approached 9.8 million b/d in early August from less than 9.4 million b/d in July. Since OPEC+ decided to ease production cuts, Russia plans to increase its crude oil production by 400,000 b/d. Output of gas condensate, typically between 700,000 and 800,000 b/d, isn't included in this deal. Shipments heading for Europe have been feeling the pressure, with volumes having dropped to record low levels. Data by IHS Markit Commodities at Sea suggests that July's activity declined 42% year-on-year and 14% since June. Cargoes loaded in the first half of August stand 10% lower than in July and 34% below levels observed a year ago. Other suppliers have been quickly filling the gaps so far, but the increase in Russian production since early August could bring this trend to an end. Meanwhile, crude oil flows from the US to European importers have strengthened rather quickly in July, after three months of very low activity. Cargoes loaded last month surpassed 1.2 million b/d for the first time since March 2020, while shipments in the first half of August remained above one million b/d. North Europe has been absorbing most of these barrels, as refineries show preference to US grades than Russia's Urals. Another interesting development has been the recent increase observed in flows of refined products from Russia to the US. However, trade seems to be following seasonality, as August is typically a strong month for flows of refined products from Russia to the US. Data by IHS Markit Commodities at Sea shows that the average clean product flow between January and July has been higher than in 2019, with cargoes shipped so far in August 2020 similarly higher versus August 2019. |
