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| 2020-08-25 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网8月21日莫斯科/迪拜/伦敦报道，根据路透社(Reuters)报道，欧佩克+的一份内部报告显示，欧佩克+集团的一些成员国将需要每天额外削减231万桶石油，以解决最近的供过于求问题。 据报告称，5月和7月之间出现的盈余应在8月和9月得到减产抵消。 包括石油输出国组织和俄罗斯在内的其他生产国的欧佩克+在5月份将联合减产幅度提高到创纪录的970万桶/天，然后在本月将其减缓至770万桶/天。 今年4月，疫情对航空，公路旅行和全球经济其他领域的影响使基准油价跌至每桶16美元以下。 如今病毒的持续传播威胁着石油需求复苏预测。 8月—9月数据 路透社看到的内部报告没有说额外的削减将如何分配到八月和九月。但如果削减231万桶/天，并在两个月内平均分配，欧佩克+石油日削减将达到885万桶左右。 该报告显示，欧佩克+预计2020年的石油日需求量将下降910万桶，比之前的预测高出10万桶，然后在2021年增加700万桶。 但是，欧佩克+组织也看到了另一种情况，即下半年，第二波感染浪潮将更加强劲，持续时间更长，席卷欧洲，美国，印度等地。 据报告显示，在这种情况下，预计今年的日需求将下降1,120万桶，使OECD第四季度的商业石油库存达到2.33亿桶，高于最近5年的平均水平。 2021年的库存将比最近5年平均水平高出2.5亿桶。 减产协议执行情况 根据数据显示，在欧佩克成员国中，伊拉克和尼日利亚的遵守情况最差，甚至阿联酋也已在6月进行了额外的自愿削减，5月—7月期间，石油日产量超产了5万桶。 在非欧佩克成员国中，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦的石油日产量分别高出28万桶和19万桶。 郝芬 译自 能源世界网 原文如下: OPEC+ needs to fix daily oversupply of more than 2 mn barrels Some members of the OPEC+ group of oil-producing nations would need to slash output by an extra 2.31 million barrels per day (bpd) to make up for their recent oversupply, an internal OPEC+ report seen by Reuters shows. The surplus seen between May and July ought to be compensated for in August and September, the report said. OPEC+ - which includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia - stepped up their joint output cuts to a record 9.7 million bpd in May before tapering them to 7.7 million bpd this month. In April the impact of the new coronavirus on air and road travel and other areas of the global economy sent benchmark oil prices below $16 a barrel. The ongoing spread of the virus is now threatening oil demand recovery forecasts. AUGUST-SEPTEMBER The internal report seen by Reuters did not say how the additional cuts would be distributed over August and September. But if the 2.31 million bpd figure is adopted and spread equally over the two months, it would take OPEC+ oil cuts to about 8.85 million bpd. The report shows OPEC+ expects oil demand in 2020 to fall by 9.1 million bpd, 100,000 bpd more than in its previous forecast, before rising by 7 million bpd in 2021. However, OPEC+ also see an alternative scenario in which a stronger and more-prolonged second wave of infections hits Europe, the United States, India in the second half of the year. Under this scenario, demand is forecast to fall by 11.2 million bpd in 2020, sending OECD commercial oil inventories in the fourth quarter to 233 million barrels above the latest 5-year average, the report showed. Stocks would stand at 250 million barrels above the latest 5-year average in 2021. COMPLIANCE Data shows among OPEC members, Iraq and Nigeria were the least compliant and even the United Arab Emirates, which made additional voluntary cuts in June, overproduced by around 50,000 bpd over the May-July period. Among non-OPEC participants, Russia and Kazakhstan overproduced by 280,000 bpd and 190,000 bpd, respectively. |
