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| 2020-08-26 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价8月24日报道，过去几周，尽管出现了一系列利好消息，包括库存下降和欧佩克+产油国减产协议遵守率高等消息，但油价未能突破，这让看涨者感到沮丧。 现在，石油市场出现了新的危机。油价在经历了短暂的涨势后，已回落至熟悉的40美元低位交易区间，此前美国劳工部上周公布的美国每周申请失业救济人数总计达110.6万人。就在一周前，这一数字自3月份以来首次跌破100万大关，引发了人们对经济复苏可持续性的严重怀疑。 Tyche Capital Advisors LLC全球宏观计划管理成员Tariq Zahir对彭博社表示："鉴于过去几周有关库存的所有利好消息，仍无法让油价突破高点，这并非好兆头。原油未能突破上限，在一个正价差市场中，下行风险是存在的。” 油价波动已恢复到危机前的水平，目前看来没有什么能让市场采取积极行动。以下是油价处于不稳定状态的时间可能比牛市时间要长得多的3个原因。 第一个原因是，4月份，油价有史以来首次跌至负值，最大的影响因素是供应严重过剩和库存空间不足。值得庆幸的是，现在的情况比4个月前要好得多，这也是油价出现良好反弹的原因。但令人担忧的是，尽管美国石油库存在过去几周一直在下降，但降幅已大幅缩小。 根据EIA数据显示，截至7月24日当周，美国石油库存减少1060万桶，随后三周分别减少740万桶、450万桶和160万桶。这一趋势有可能很快逆转，库存可能再次开始上升，这对油价来说是一个非常不利的态势。 在欧佩克（OPEC+）放松大幅减产之际，这些库存担忧并没有得到缓解。从本月开始，欧佩克+将其历史性的产量规模削减了约200万桶/天，至770万桶/天。但正如法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)大宗商品策略主管哈里?齐林格里安(Harry Tchilingurian)所指出的那样，人们确实担心，欧佩克+增产可能与石油需求不平衡的复苏同时出现。 Rystad Energy也警告称，在欧佩克放松减产后，可能会再次出现供应过剩。欧佩克+从8月开始尝试增产，但可能事与愿违，因为就石油需求而言，市场仍远未脱离困境。整个液体燃料市场将重新出现小幅的供应过剩，在2020年12月之前不会再次出现供应短缺的情况。 沙特能源大臣阿卜杜勒-阿齐兹?本?萨勒曼试图缓解市场对油价下跌速度过快的担忧。他指出，那些在5月和6月未能遵守减产承诺的国家，将在未来几个月进行减产以作为补偿。但这并不能得到保证。 第二个原因是，最近油价和股市的上涨，在很大程度上可以归因于对新冠肺炎疫苗将很快成为现实的乐观情绪。事实上，开发有效疫苗的竞赛正在如火如荼地进行:在全球范围内，共有185个研究小组正在研究疫苗，其中有7种疫苗已进入大规模药效试验的最后阶段。 不幸的是，疫苗开发通常是一个非常漫长的过程，安全是重中之重。例如，最近的一种登革热疫苗，当接种这种疫苗的儿童后来接触到登革热病毒时，实际上使他们的疾病加剧了，而另一种针对呼吸道合胞病毒研制的疫苗也产生了同样的问题。 由于缺乏可行和安全的疫苗进入大众市场的明确时间表，全球经济和石油市场仍然特别容易受到所谓的第二波疫情感染的影响。实际上，欧佩克上个月表达了对石油市场复苏步伐慢于预期的担忧，原因是第二波疫情延长的风险不断增加。 第三个原因是，可再生能源的繁荣。当投资者考虑到石油和可再生能源之间的关系时，他们通常会从低油价可能减缓向可再生能源转变的角度来思考。到目前为止，没有证据表明低油价对可再生能源的发展势头产生负面影响。相反，对可再生能源的需求在疫情期间继续增长，而化石燃料正面临历史上最大的需求破坏危机。 油气行业正在进行的大规模资产减记浪潮清楚地表明，高管们终于承认，正如壳牌首席执行长三年前预测的那样，“持续走低”可能成为石油行业的新常态。不过，看涨者可能会笑到最后，因为对石油项目的持续投资不足可能会导致供应减少，从而导致油价飙升。 王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价 原文如下： 3 Reasons Why Oil Prices Won’t Rally Anytime Soon It’s been disheartening for the bulls that oil prices have failed to break out over the past few weeks despite a flurry of positive news including declining inventories and reports that OPEC+ producers have mostly been sticking to their pledged cuts. And now the pendulum has swung to the opposite end and oil markets have to climb a new wall of worry. After a brief, half-hearted rally, oil prices have dropped back to a familiar trading range in the low-$40s after the Labor Department reported that U.S. weekly jobless claims totaled 1.106 million last week. This comes just a week after the tally dipped below the 1M mark for the first time since March, thus raising serious doubts about the sustainability of the economic recovery. “With all the bullish headlines that we’ve seen over the last weeks regarding inventories, the inability to break higher does not bode well,’’ Tariq Zahir, managing member of the global macro program at Tyche Capital Advisors LLC, has told Bloomberg. “Crude fails to break to the upside and you’re in a contango market, so risk is to the downside.” Oil price volatility has returned to pre-crisis levels and nothing seems to jolt the markets into action at this point. Here are 3 reasons why oil prices might remain in limbo for much longer than the bulls could have hoped for. #1. Another Supply Glut A huge supply glut and lack of storage space is the biggest reason why oil prices sunk into negative territory in April for the first time ever. Thankfully, the situation is much better now than it was four months ago, which is the reason why oil prices have staged a nice recovery. But here’s the alarming part: Although U.S. oil inventories have been declining over the past couple of weeks, the margin of drawdown has shrunk considerably. According to EIA data, U.S. oil inventories declined by 10.6 million barrels during the week ending July 24 and then dropped by 7.4 million barrels, 4.5 million barrels, and just 1.6 million barrels in the three subsequent weeks, respectively. There’s a real danger that this trend could soon flip and inventories could start rising again - a very negative development for oil prices. These inventory worries are not helped by the fact they have come at a time when OPEC+ has eased its deep production cuts. Starting this month, OPEC trimmed its historic production curbs by about 2 million barrels per day to 7.7 mb/d. But as BNP Paribas’ head of commodity strategy Harry Tchilingurian has told Bloomberg, there are genuine concerns that rising OPEC+ production could coincide with an uneven recovery in oil demand. Rystad Energy has also warned that a renewed surplus could come knocking again following the loosening of the OPEC+ production cuts: “OPEC’s experiment to increase production from August could backfire as we are still nowhere near out of the woods yet in terms of oil demand. The overall liquids market will flip back into a mini-supply glut and a swing into deficit will not happen again until December 2020.” Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman tried to assuage fears that the easing had come too soon by pointing out that countries that had failed to stick to their pledges in May and June would compensate by cutting production in the coming months. But we all know that with OPEC+, nothing is ever guaranteed. #2. Covid-19 uncertainty Much of the recent oil and equity rallies can be chalked up to optimism that a Covid-19 vaccine will soon become a reality. Indeed, the race to develop an effective vaccine is in full swing: Globally, there are 185 research teams engaged in the race to find a vaccine with seven vaccines having made it to the final stage of large-scale efficacy trials. Unfortunately, proper vaccine development is normally a very long process with safety usually given top priority. For instance, a recent vaccine for dengue fever was discovered to actually heighten the disease in vaccinated children when they later were exposed to the dengue virus while another vaccine developed for Respiratory Syncytial Virus caused the same problem. It’s the biggest reason why many countries are discounting Russia’s so-called ‘Sputnik moment.’ With no clear timelines as to when a viable and safe vaccine could hit the mass markets, the global economy and oil markets remain particularly vulnerable to the so-called second wave of Covid-19 infections. Indeed, last month OPEC+ expressed concern that the pace of the oil market recovery has been slower than anticipated due to the growing risks of a prolonged second wave of the pandemic. #3. The renewables boom When investors think of the oil-renewables nexus, they usually look at it in terms of how low oil prices might slow down the shift to renewable energy. Whereas that is true in principle, so far there is no evidence that low oil prices have negatively affected the momentum of renewable energy. On the contrary, the demand for renewable energy has continued to grow during the pandemic at a time when fossil fuels are facing their biggest demand destruction in history. The ongoing wave of massive asset writedowns in the oil and gas sector is a clear indication that executives have finally acknowledged that ‘Lower Forever’ might be the new norm for oil as Shell CEO predicted three years ago. The bulls might have the last laugh though: Sustained underinvestment in oil projects might actually lead to a supply squeeze down the line which could cause oil prices to spike. |
