市场对冲基金将焦点从原油转向精炼燃料

    中国石化新闻网讯 据8月25日Oil Monster消息：上周，市场对冲基金继续将投资重点从原油转向精炼燃料，押注炼油企业的利润率太低，未来将有走高趋势，即使基准油价的信号仍然存在矛盾。

    截至8月18日的一周内，对冲基金和其他基金经理购买了6种最重要的石油期货和期权合约，价值相当于1,200万桶石油。

    但采购主要集中在石油产品，增加2000万桶，而原油净销售减少800万桶，延续了过去两个月的明显趋势。

    上周基金净买入美国汽油(+1100万桶)，美国柴油(+500万桶)和欧洲汽油(+300万桶)，同时卖出布伦特原油(100万桶)，纽约商品交易所(NYMEX)和WTI洲际交易所(ICE)的原油(-700万桶)。

    自6月9日以来，投资组合经理在三大燃料合约中总共买入8,000万桶原油，同时卖出3,200万桶原油合约。

    在2013年以来的所有交易日中，燃料类股的总净头寸从23%上升至57％，而原油类股的净头寸已从68％降至61％。

    随着疫情再次加剧并带来了新一轮的封锁和经济动荡，对原油价格的早期看涨情绪已经消散。

    近几周基准原油价格持平，日历价差实际上已经减弱，表明贸易商认为未来几个月会有大量的原油供应。

    作为回应，基金经理将注意力转向燃料，该领域的炼油利润率接近多年低点，这促使炼油商限制原油加工和燃料生产。

    在缺乏有关石油价格走向的强烈信号的情况下，燃料提供了最有吸引力的相对价值，其表现可能比原油更为强劲。

    冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster

    原文如下:

    Hedge Funds Shift Focus from Crude to Fuels: Kemp

    Hedge funds continued to switch their focus from crude oil to refined fuels last week – betting refinery margins are too low and will have to rise even as signals about the benchmark oil prices remain conflicting.

    Hedge funds and other money managers purchased the equivalent of 12 million barrels in the six most important petroleum futures and options contracts in the week to Aug. 18.

    But purchases were concentrated in petroleum products (+20 million barrels) while there were net sales in crude oil (-8 million), continuing a trend evident for the last two months.

    Funds were net buyers last week of U.S. gasoline (+11 million barrels), U.S. diesel (+5 million) and European gasoil (+3 million) while selling Brent (-1 million) and NYMEX and ICE WTI (-7 million).

    Since June 9, portfolio managers have purchased a total of 80 million barrels in the three major fuels contracts while selling 32 million barrels of crude contracts.

    The combined net position in fuels has risen to the 57th percentile, up from the 23rd percentile, for all trading days since 2013, while the position in crude has fallen to the 61st percentile, down from the 68th.

    Earlier bullishness about crude prices has dissipated as the coronavirus epidemic has intensified again and brought a renewed round of lockdowns and economic disruption.

    Benchmark crude prices have been flat in recent weeks and calendar spreads have actually softened, indicating traders see plenty of crude availability in the next few months.

    In response, fund managers have shifted their attention to fuels, where refinery margins close to multi-year lows are prompting refiners to restrict crude processing and fuel production.

    In the absence of strong signals about the direction of petroleum prices, fuels offer the most attractive relative value and are likely to perform more strongly than crude.