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| 2020-09-09 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据9月7日Investing.com报道，上周末市场出乎意料地出现大震荡。股票市场的走势以FAANG和特斯拉的深度抛售为标志。 多数市场观察人士并不认为周四和周五股指的下跌，以及周一早盘股指期货面临的一些压力是一个大问题，因为这符合投资组合再平衡的假设。与此同时，投资者对银行业和其他一些近几个月来未能赶上股市上涨行情的公司的股票也越来越感兴趣。 货币市场相对平静，尽管美元指数周期性波动，但变化不大，这也在短期内加强了当前股市的下跌。 石油方面的情况有点令人担忧。本月到目前为止，布伦特原油和西德克萨斯中质油的价格已经下跌了7%以上。周一开盘时，布伦特原油跌至每桶42美元下方，西德克萨斯中质原油跌至每桶39美元下方。这是自7月来的最低位。前两个月的增长非常缓慢，而目前增长势头减弱，越来越让人想起横盘整理的趋势。现在看来，这一发展趋势似乎是获利回吐，因为已经失去了增长的动力。 石油储量数据与石油价格不符，在飓风导致石油产量大幅下降的背景下，石油储量下降幅度相对较小。这引起了人们对石油消费恢复速度的怀疑。但贝克休斯(Hughes)周五指出，正在作业的钻井平台数量从三周前的172台增加到目前的181台。天然气生产平台的数量在7周内增加了4个，达到72个。在这两种情况下，生产的复苏可以应对价格从低点反弹。 本周初，有报道称沙特阿拉伯将降低其出口售价，这也对油价构成了压力。这些行动引发了市场对新一轮争夺市场份额以遏制美国原油产量增长的担忧。 现在更倾向于熊市。由于2018年10月以来油价一直低于200天平均水平，投资者仍对打破两年下跌趋势的预期犹豫不定。在此期间，油价在突破高点的尝试失败后，下跌了15%-70%。 很难相信未来几周70%的价格会像3-4月份那样暴跌。不过，回调至每桶35美元，即4月份的高位，似乎是一种合乎逻辑的状态。更有理由相信这一点的是，在过去的16年里，牛市和熊市之间经常会发生巨大的冲突。 也许这一次，在价格达到界限水平之前，投资者们甚至不会出手支持。然而，印钞机的强化运作和石油需求国家的大规模政府刺激措施显示，当前的调整将是短暂的。鉴于市场的空前波动，布伦特原油价格将在今年年底前回到每桶50美元的水平，也就不足为奇了。 王佳晶 摘译自 Investing.com 原文如下： Crude Oil May Fall To The $35 Area Before Sellers Stop The end of last week was unexpectedly stormy. The movements in the stock market were marked by a deep selloff of FAANG and Tesla Most observers do not see the decline in the indices on Thursday and Friday and some pressure on index futures on Monday morning as a big problem, as it fits into the hypothesis of rebalancing portfolios. In parallel, there is increasing interest in stocks from companies in the banking sector and some others that have missed the market rally in recent months. The comparative calm of the currency market, where the dollar index changes little despite periodic bursts of volatility, also reinforces in the short term the current stocks drawdown The situation is a little more worrisome around oil. Brent and WTI have lost over 7% so far this month. At the start of trading on Monday, Brent sank below $42, while WTI dropped under $39. This is the area of lows since July, and there has been very cautious growth in the previous two months. Looking at the Crude Oil charts, one can see growth momentum weakened and became more and more reminiscent of the sideways trend. The logical development of this movement now appears as profit-taking as it’s growth had lost its impulse. Reserves data turned out to be against oil, showing a relatively modest decline against the backdrop of the collapse of production due to Hurricane Laura. This raised doubts about the rate at which oil consumption is recovering. Besides, Backer Hughes on Friday noted an increase in the number of operating drilling rigs from 172 three weeks ago to 181 now. And the number of gas production rigs has increased by 4 in seven weeks to 72. In both cases, we see a recovery of producers in response to price bounces from lows. At the start of the week, oil was also pressured by reports that Saudi Arabia will lower its export selling prices. These actions have triggered more price pressure, raising concerns about a possible new round of competition for market share to contain US Crude Oil production growth. The technical picture is now more on the bear side. Their attack on Brent came from a 200-day average. A downward turn from this level indicates that players are still hesitant to speculate on breaking the two-year downward trend as oil has remained under the 200-day average since October 2018. During this time, after unsuccessful attempts to break through higher, the price has fallen by 15%-70%. It is hard to believe that 70% of the price will collapse in the coming weeks, as it did in March-April. However, the correction to $35 – the highs of April – seems to be a logical scenario. All the more reason to believe this is that there has often been a final clash between bulls and bears over the last 16 years. Perhaps this time the bulls will not even lay a supportive hand until prices reach these levels. However, the intensified operation of the printing press and the vast government stimulus in Oil-demand countries make us gather that the current correction is to be short-lived. Given the unprecedented market volatility, it should not come as a surprise that the Brent barrel will return to $50 by the end of the year. |
