受疫情影响 2020年天然气需求将从峰值下降

    中国石化新闻网讯 据天然气加工网站9月9日消息 美国能源信息署（EIA）在其《短期能源展望》（STEO）中表示，由于冠状病毒封锁削减了经济活动和能源价格，2020年美国天然气产量和需求将从去年的历史高点下降。

    EIA预计，2020年和2021年，干气产量将从2019年的922.1亿立方英尺/天的历史最高水平分别下降至898.8亿立方英尺/天和865.9亿立方英尺/天。

    EIA还预计，2020年天然气消费量将从2019年创纪录的849.7亿立方英尺/天降至2020年的826.8亿立方英尺/天，2021年将降至791.4亿立方英尺/天。

    这将是2017年以来的首次年度消费下降，也是自2006年以来需求首次连续两年下降。

    EIA的9月对2020年的预测高于8月预期，当时EIA预测供应量为886.5亿立方英尺/天，需求量为824.2亿立方英尺/天。

    EIA预测，2020年美国液化天然气出口量将达到62.7亿立方英尺/天，2021年将达到87.3亿立方英尺/天，高于2019年创纪录的49.8亿立方英尺/天，高于其8月份预测的2020年55.4亿立方英尺/天和2021年72.8亿立方英尺/天。

    EIA表示，美国煤炭产量预计将在2020年下降28%，至5.11亿吨，这将是1964年以来的最低水平。到2021年，煤炭产量预计将上升至6亿吨，同时由于预计天然气价格上涨，发电厂预计将燃烧更多煤炭。

    该机构预计，2020年燃烧化石燃料的碳排放量将从2019年的51.3亿吨降至46.18亿吨，为1986年以来的最低水平，之后随着发电厂燃烧更多煤炭，到2021年将升至48.41亿吨。

    吴恒磊 编译自 天然气加工

    原文如下：

    U.S. natgas output, demand to fall in 2020 from peaks due to coronavirus

    U.S. natural gas production and demand will drop in 2020 from record highs last year as coronavirus lockdowns cut economic activity and energy prices, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

    The EIA projected dry gas production will drop to 89.88 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in 2020 and 86.59 bcfd in 2021 from the all-time high of 92.21 bcfd in 2019.

    It also projected gas consumption would fall to 82.68 bcfd in 2020 and 79.14 bcfd in 2021, from a record 84.97 bcfd in 2019.

    That would be the first annual decline in consumption since 2017 and the first time demand has fallen for two consecutive years since 2006.

    EIA’s projections for 2020 in September were higher than its August forecasts of 88.65 bcfd for supply and 82.42 bcfd for demand.

    The agency forecast U.S. liquefied natural gas exports would reach 6.27 bcfd in 2020 and 8.73 bcfd in 2021, up from a record 4.98 bcfd in 2019. That is higher than its August forecasts of 5.54 bcfd in 2020 and 7.28 bcfd in 2021.

    U.S. coal production is expected to fall 28% to 511 million short tons in 2020, which would be its lowest level since 1964, before rising to 600 million short tons in 2021 when power plants are expected to burn more coal due to a forecast increase in gas prices, EIA said.

    It projected carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels will fall to 4.618 billion tonnes in 2020, the lowest since 1986, from 5.130 billion tonnes in 2019, the lowest since 1992, before rising to 4.841 billion tonnes in 2021 as power generators burn more coal.