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| 2020-09-17 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社9月15日报道，国际能源机构（IEA）表示，因为一场新冠肺炎疫情的再度爆发阻碍了需求的复苏，全球石油市场的未来已变得“更加脆弱”。 为主要经济体提供咨询的国际能源署下调了今年剩余时间内的燃油消费预期，并预计石油库存不会像预期的那样急剧下降——石油库存已于7月份反弹至创纪录水平。 随着今年夏天早些时候所看到的步履蹒跚的复苏开始，伦敦石油交易价格低于每桶40美元，是接近两个多月来的最低水平。IEA的悲观看法与石油巨头英国石油公司(BP Plc)、托克集团(Trafigura Group)和欧佩克+本周做出的悲观评估一致。 IEA下调石油市场前景展望，突显出欧佩克+面临的挑战十分严峻。这些国家已大幅减产以提振市场，并将于本周晚些时候开会评估进展情况。 欧佩克+还在努力让所有成员都遵守其减产战略。据IEA估计，阿拉伯联合酋长国今年8月轻视了产量配额，仅执行了10%的强制减产。 今年1月至7月，全球石油日均需求较去年同期减少1050万桶，降幅约为10%，即便是现在，石油消费量仍减少了约1070万桶。 对需求预测的最大调整是对第四季度的需求调整，IEA将日需求量下调了60万桶。虽然下半年全球石油库存仍有望大幅减少——每天减少340万桶，但这比一个月前的预期少了100万桶。 IEA表示，此次调整部分源于远程办公的增长，在短短几个月内，远程办公减少了运输燃料的需求，对需求产生了重大影响。该机构补充称，中国购买量大幅放缓也对市场构成压力。 尽管以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的欧佩克联盟保持了大量的闲置产量，但发达国家的石油库存在7月份上升到创纪录的32.25亿桶。 根据IEA的数据，由于有迹象显示经济活动正在复苏，上个月联合政府恢复了部分石油供应，日产量增加了近200万桶。欧佩克将于周四召开监督会议，评估这一决定的影响。 王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社 原文如下： IEA Says Oil Market More Fragile as Resurgent Virus Hurts Demand The outlook for global oil markets has grown “even more fragile” as a resurgent pandemic derails the recovery in demand, the International Energy Agency said. The IEA, which advises major economies, trimmed forecasts for fuel consumption for the rest of the year and predicted that oil inventories -- which rebounded to record levels in July -- won’t subside as sharply as anticipated. Oil prices are trading below $40 a barrel in London, close to their lowest in more than two months, as the recovery seen earlier this summer begins to falter. The downbeat view from the IEA chimes with bleak assessments this week from oil giant BP Plc, trading house Trafigura Group, and OPEC. The IEA’s downgraded outlook underscores the challenge faced by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, who have made vast production cuts to prop up the market and will meet later this week to review their progress. The coalition is also struggling to keep all members committed to its strategy. The United Arab Emirates -- traditionally a staunch ally of cartel-leader Saudi Arabia -- flouted its production quotas in August, implementing just 10% of its mandated cuts, according to the IEA’s estimates. Between January and July, world oil demand was on average 10.5 million barrels a day lower than last year, or roughly 10%, as lockdowns aimed at halting the virus emptied roads and grounded flights, the agency said. Even now, consumption remains down by about 10.7 million barrels. The biggest adjustment to the demand forecast was for the fourth quarter, cut by 600,000 barrels a day. While oil inventories worldwide are still on track to shrink considerably in the second half, by 3.4 million barrels a day, that’s 1 million a day less than predicted a month ago. Part of the revision stems from the growth in teleworking, which “in the space of just a few months” is having a “meaningful impact” on demand by depressing the need for transport fuels, the IEA said. A sharp slowdown in Chinese purchases has also weighed on the market, it added. Oil inventories in developed nations rose in July to a record 3.225 billion barrels, even as the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia kept huge volumes of output idle. Last month the coalition restored some supplies on signs that economic activity was recovering, with output rising by close to 2 million barrels a day, according to the IEA. The cartel will hold a monitoring meeting on Thursday to assess the impact of that decision. |
