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| 2020-10-19 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社10月14日报道，国际能源署(IEA)表示，由于疫情抑制了需求，石油的前景“依然脆弱”，而欧佩克+明年增加供应的计划，将使全球市场失衡。 国际能源署在其月度市场报告中表示:“由于最近许多国家新增新冠肺炎病例，需求复苏存在停滞的风险。” 与此同时，随着欧佩克及其合作伙伴放松部分防止供过于求的措施，市场将在1月份获得新的供应。这家总部位于巴黎的机构表示，一旦阀门打开，市场吸收更多供应的空间就非常有限了。 病毒感染的加速令许多市场人士怀疑，欧佩克及其盟友是否会从1月份起增加供应。不过，阿拉伯联合酋长国能源部长马兹鲁伊周二表示，欧佩克目前将按计划继续增加供应。 由于疫情对经济造成巨大影响，今年全球石油需求仍将出现8%的空前下滑。为了抵消减产并支撑油价，以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的欧佩克+大幅削减了石油产量。 国际能源署称，这些措施取得了一定的成果，在第三季度以每天90万桶的速度消耗了全球膨胀的库存，伦敦原油期货价格徘徊在每桶40美元上方。然而，报告显示，库存的下降将在明年上半年显著放缓。 在8月份结束了最大规模的减产后，欧佩克+预计将进一步放松减产。根据今年早些时候达成的一项协议，23个成员国将在明年1月增加约190万桶的日产量，并预计需求将走强。 当这些额外的石油供应将使库存的减少放缓。IEA表示，现货原油市场价格走软，意味着如果需求进一步放缓或其它产油国提高产量，这种平衡可能很容易被打破。 不确定的前景可能导致库存下滑，这反映在现货价格已经走弱这一事实上。欧佩克+成员国定于周一开会，讨论市场前景，然后在11月底敲定计划。 王佳晶 摘译自 彭博社 原文如下： OPEC+ Oil Boost to Leave Market in Precarious Balance, IEA Says The outlook for oil “remains fragile” as the pandemic depresses demand, and OPEC’s plans to increase supply next year will leave global markets precariously balanced, the International Energy Agency said. “There is a risk that the demand recovery is stalled by the recent increase in Covid-19 cases in many countries,” the IEA said in its monthly market report. At the same time, markets are set to receive fresh supplies in January as OPEC and its partners relax some of the measures they’ve taken to prevent a glut. Once the taps are opened, “there is only limited headroom for the market to absorb” anything more, the Paris-based agency said. T he acceleration in virus infections is leading many in the market to question if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will increase supply from January. Producers inside the group are also having doubts, according to delegates. Still, United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said on Tuesday that, for now, OPEC+ plans to proceed with the supply boost as scheduled. Global oil demand remains on track for an unprecedented 8% slump this year because of the economic fallout from the virus. To offset the drop, and prop up prices, the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia has made vast reductions in output. Their measures have “shown some success,” depleting the world’s swollen inventories in the third quarter at a rate of 900,000 barrels a day, the IEA said. Crude futures are hovering just above $40 a barrel in London. Yet the declines in inventories will slow markedly in the first half of next year, the report showed Having phased out some of the biggest supply cutbacks in August, OPEC+ is due to ease them further. The 23-nation group will add about 1.9 million barrels a day in January, under the terms of an agreement set up earlier this year, in anticipation of stronger demand When those additional barrels arrive, stockpile drawdowns will decelerate. Weakening prices in the physical crude market, where real cargoes are bought and sold, suggest that the balance could easily be tipped if demand slows further or other producers raise output, the IEA said “The uncertain outlook that could see the drawdown of stocks falter is reflected in the fact that physical prices have weakened,” it said OPEC+ nations are due to meet on Monday and discuss the outlook for the market, before finalizing their plans at the end of November. |
