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| 2020-11-06 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据11月3日Rigzone消息：Rystad Energy表示，新冠肺炎疫情和能源转型加速，导致该公司大幅调整了长期石油需求预测。 该公司目前认为，全球石油需求最有可能在2028年达到1.02亿桶/天的峰值。而疫情之前，Rystad Energy曾预测，2030年石油需求峰值将超过1.06亿桶/天。 根据Rystad Energy的数据，疫情的持续可能会导致2020年的石油需求下降到8930万桶/天，而2019年为9960万桶/天。Rystad Energy预计2021年需求将恢复到9480万桶/天，2022年将恢复到9840万桶/天，另外，由于疫情的结构性影响，如工作通勤减少和航空恢复缓慢，需求仍将停留在疫情前水平之下。该公司表示，石油需求要到2023年才能恢复到疫情前水平，并回升到1.010亿桶/天。 Rystad Energy指出，2025年至2030年，石油需求将进入平稳期，约为1.02亿桶/天。从长期来看，受汽车行业电动汽车高普及率的推动，该公司预计到2050年，石油需求将大幅下降至6200万桶/天。 冯娟 摘译自 Rigzone 原文如下： Rystad Revises Peak Oil Demand Forecast Rystad Energy revealed on Monday that the Covid-19 pandemic and the acceleration of the energy transition have led it to significantly revise its long-term oil demand forecast. The company now sees global oil demand peaking at 102 million barrels per day (MMbpd) in 2028 as the most likely scenario. Before Covid-19, Rystad Energy was forecasting that peak oil demand of just over 106 MMbpd would be realized in 2030. According to Rystad Energy, the persistence of the pandemic is likely to cause 2020 oil demand to decline to 89.3 MMbpd, compared to 99.6 MMbpd in 2019. Demand is then expected to recover to 94.8 MMbpd in 2021 and 98.4 MMbpd in 2022, Rystad Energy outlined, adding that it will still be stuck below pre-virus levels due to structural Covid-19 impacts, such as less work commuting and slower aviation recovery. The company says it is only in 2023 that oil demand will recover to pre-Covid-19 levels and jump back to 100.1 MMbpd. Between 2025 and 2030, oil demand will enter a plateau phase at around 102 MMbpd, Rystad Energy noted. In this phase, the company no longer sees any residual Covid-19 impacts. In the very long-term, the company sees a steep decline of oil demand to 62 MMbpd in 2050, “driven by the high penetration rate of EVs in the automotive industry”. “The lockdowns will stunt economic recovery in the short-term and in the long-term and the pandemic will also leave behind a legacy of behavioral changes that will also affect oil use,” Artyom Tchen, a senior oil markets analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement. “Overall, we do not believe Covid-19 has put peak oil demand behind us, but we do acknowledge the pandemic will greatly alter the peak oil demand reckoning moment, both in terms of timing and volumes,” he added. Rystad Energy examined three different scenarios in its long-term oil demand prognosis. The scenario it considers most likely is called the “Governmental Targets Scenario” and assumes the share of oil in various sectors develops in line with stated government goals to move towards a cleaner carbon future, notably in the electrification of transport. |
