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| 2020-11-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据11月11日Oil Monster消息：美国能源信息署(EIA)周二表示，预计2020年美国原油日产量将减少86万桶，至1,139万桶，降幅大于此前预估的80万桶。 美国原油产量已从5月触及的两年半低点回升，主要是因为页岩油生产商为应对油价上涨而重新开井。 不过，EIA预计美国原油日产量在2021年第二季度将普遍下降至1,100万桶，因为新的钻井活动不足以抵消现有油井产量的下降。该估计，2021年晚些时候钻井活动将增加，在第四季度达到平均每天约1,130万桶。 总体而言，预计2021年美国原油日产量将减少29万桶，至1110万桶，而EIA此前预测为下降36万桶。 能源部统计部门目前预计，2020年美国石油和其他液体燃料消耗将减少238万桶/天，至1,816万桶/天，降幅略大于此前预测的231万桶/天。 最近几天，由于冠状病毒感染病例增多且许多国家重新实施封锁，市场对冠状病毒疫苗的前景感到乐观，这抵消了市场的悲观情绪，油价出现剧烈波动。 EIA预测，2020年全球石油和液体燃料的日均消费量为9290万桶，较2019年减少860万桶，而2021年将增加590万桶。 随着全球石油需求的增加，预计2021年的库存减少将引起石油价格上涨的压力，并预计国际布伦特原油价格将平均在每桶47美元左右。 冯娟 摘译自 Oil Monster 原文如下： U.S. Crude Output to Decline More Than Previously Forecast in 2020: EIA U.S. crude oil production is expected to fall by 860,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2020 to 11.39 million bpd, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday, a bigger decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 800,000 bpd. U.S. crude oil production has recovered from the two-and-a-half-year lows touched in May mainly because shale producers have brought wells back online in response to rising prices. However, the EIA expects U.S. crude oil production to generally decline to an average of 11 million bpd in the second quarter of 2021 because new drilling activity will not generate enough production to offset declines from existing wells. It expects drilling activity to rise later in 2021, reaching an average of about 11.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter. Overall, U.S. crude output in 2021 is expected to fall by 290,000 bpd to 11.1 million bpd, compared with the EIA’s previous forecast for a decline of 360,000 bpd. The statistical arm of the Department of Energy now expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to decline 2.38 million bpd to 18.16 million bpd in 2020, a slightly bigger decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 2.31 million bpd. Oil prices have whipsawed in recent days as optimism from promising results for a COVID-19 vaccine has offset bearish sentiment due to rising coronavirus infections and renewed lockdowns in many countries. Globally, the EIA forecasts that consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.9 million bpd for all of 2020, down by 8.6 million bpd from 2019, before increasing by 5.9 million bpd in 2021. The EIA expects that as global oil demand rises, forecast inventory draws in 2021 will cause some upward oil price pressures and forecasts international Brent crude oil prices will average about $47 a barrel in 2021. |
