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| 2020-11-18 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网11月12日伦敦报道，国际能源署(IEA)周四表示，2021年前全球石油需求不太可能因新冠肺炎疫苗的推出而大幅增长，自本周早些时候宣布疫苗的进展，这一观点可能会抑制油价上涨。 IEA在其月度报告中表示，疫苗如何以及何时能让正常生活恢复，现在还为时过早。就目前而言，我们预计不会对2021年上半年产生重大影响。一些国家需求前景黯淡，产量不断上升……认为目前的基本面太弱，无法为价格提供有力支撑。 IEA指出，截至9月份，经合组织(OECD)国家已连续两个月适度减少原油库存，但其表示，原油库存水平仍离5月份疫情最严重时的峰值不远。 据报告指出，欧洲和美国的新冠感染病例再次爆发，并采取了新的封锁措施，将其对2020年全球石油需求的预期与上次估计相比下调了40万桶/天。 欧佩克和俄罗斯等盟国计划从明年1月开始缩减减产协议，这将意味着大量石油仍将被储存。 IEA表示，除非基本面发生改变，否则重新平衡市场的任务将进展缓慢。 郝芬 译自 能源世界网 原文如下： Global oil demand unlikely to get vaccine boost until later in 2021: IEA Global oil demand is unlikely to get a significant boost from the roll-out of vaccines against COVID-19 until well into 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday, a view that is likely to dampen oil price gains since vaccine progress was announced earlier this week. "It is far too early to know how and when vaccines will allow normal life to resume. For now, our forecasts do not anticipate a significant impact in the first half of 2021," the IEA said in its monthly report. "The poor outlook for demand and rising production in some countries ... suggest that the current fundamentals are too weak to offer firm support to prices." While noting that OECD countries had modestly drawn down their crude oil stocks for two months in a row by September, the IEA said that storage levels were still not far from peaks in May at the height of the pandemic. It cited a resurgence of Covid-19 infections in Europe and the United States and renewed lockdown measures for revising down its outlook for global oil demand for 2020 by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared with its last estimate. Plans by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia to taper their production cut pact from January would mean much oil would remain in storage. "Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress," the IEA said. |
