拉丁美洲石油行业将在2021年开始复苏

    中国石化新闻网讯 据11月14日Prensa Latina报道，惠誉国际评级(Fitch Ratings)机构估计，拉丁美洲的石油和天然气公司将从2021年开始走向复苏。这家总部位于纽约和伦敦的金融公司明确指出，该行业将在2020年新冠肺炎疫情对世界经济造成影响后开始复苏。

    惠誉估计，原油价格在2021年可能上涨至平均每桶45美元，约为2020年预期价格的10%，但仍远低于2019年的水平。

    该机构在预测中指出，拉丁美洲对石油产品的需求将恢复，但其增长将被大量未充分利用的产能和由疫情造成的长期高库存所抵消。由于拉丁美洲持续的宏观经济挑战，评级前景仍将是消极的。

    大约42%的拉丁美洲石油和天然气行业占未偿外币债务相当大的比例。与此同时，由于欧洲、美国和拉丁美洲新冠肺炎病例增加，燃油需求也面临压力。因此，欧佩克表示，2021年需求复苏的速度将比此前预期的要慢。

    澳大利亚国民银行产品研究主管Lachlan表示：“从很多方面来看，市场都在期待2021年的到来，到那时我们已经有了疫苗，且欧佩克+已经停止了部分计划中的供应的增加。”

    王佳晶 摘译自 Prensa Latina

    原文如下：

    Latin American oil sector will start recovering in 2021

    The rating agency Fitch Ratings estimated this week that oil and gas companies in Latin America will begin a trend towards recovery as of 2021.

    That financial corporation based in New York and London, specified that the sector will begin its recovery after a 2020 marked by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on world economy.

    Fitch estimates that crude oil prices could rise next year to an average of $45 a barrel, roughly 10 percent of what was expected in 2020, though still well below 2019 levels.

    In its forecasts, it indicated that the demand for products in the region will revive, but its increase will be offset by a large underused production capacity, and a prolonged period of high oil inventory caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

    It also forecast that the rating outlook will remain negative due to persistent macroeconomic challenges in Latin America.

    Approximately 42 percent of the Latin American oil and gas sector has issuer ratings as government-related entities, representing a significant amount of outstanding foreign currency debt.

    Meanwhile, demand for fuel is under pressure from rising infections in Europe, the United States and Latin America. As a result, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said that demand will recover in 2021 more slowly than previously thought.

    'In many ways, the market is looking to 2021, to a time when we do have vaccines in place, and to a time when OPEC and the allies have stopped some of those scheduled supply increases,' Lachlan said. Shaw, Head of Product Research at National Australia Bank.