石油类股票仍值得入手

    中国石化新闻网讯 据11月14日The Motley Fool报道，能源行业一直不受欢迎，但不要让这过分影响判断，因为仍然有很好的理由来持有石油股票。在华尔街有句话叫“当街上有流血之时买入”，这句话很好地描述了当前能源领域的状况。由于巨大的供需失衡，以及从长远来看，全球正在转向更清洁的替代能源，石油行业已严重失宠。那么，为什么还要持有石油和天然气股票呢?以下是四个原因。

    首先，能源市场尚且离不开石油。

    当今能源领域存在着非常明显的问题。最直接的就是，石油和天然气价格太低，钻井商很难赚钱。事实上，在2020年初，美国的一项关键石油基准曾一度跌至负值。虽然当下，石油价格有所改善，但仍处于历史低位。其他方面来看，为了减缓冠状病毒的早期传播从而关闭经济，以及市场向更清洁的替代品转变，这些都是重要的原因。

    然而，石油和天然气仍然是全球能源市场中的关键角色。因为，有庞大的基础设施支持他们，因此并不会轻易被取代。埃克森美孚预计摆脱碳燃料的过渡将需要几十年，毕竟，石油用了100年时间取代煤炭成为了世界上最主要的能源。实际上，即使在一些对清洁能源采用情况最乐观的估计中，石油在未来数年内仍将保持重要地位。

    这与能源钻探的一个重要方面相辅相成:油井最终会枯竭。因此，即使是在一个石油使用量减少的世界里，石油公司也必须继续勘探和开发新的资源。事实上，埃克森美孚认为，以目前的投资水平来看，世界上不会有足够的石油和天然气。如果是这样的话，目前压低油价的供需失衡将得到缓解，能源价格可能会反弹。如果出现这种情况，石油和天然气股票也会上涨。

    其次，天然气将作为过渡燃料。

    还有另一个让人对能源领域感到兴奋的原因是天然气行业。天然气比石油燃烧更清洁，经常用来发电。在不久的将来，电有望成为更重要的能源之一。部分原因是，天然气发电厂可以相对快速地启动和关闭，与太阳能和风能等间歇性可再生能源配合得很好。这有助于确保全天的电力供应。因此，即使石油需求开始放缓，天然气需求预计仍将继续增长。

    值得注意的是，这是道达尔商业计划的关键部分。该公司不仅在建设电力业务，而且正在将钻探努力转向天然气。该公司的目标是帮助支持全球摆脱对石油的依赖，同时为其日益重要的“电子”业务建立一些内部对冲机制。该公司认为，到2030年，电子业务将占销售额的15%，高于2019年的5%。与此同时，天然气预计将占销售额的50%左右，高于此前的40%。石油价格应该从55%下降到35%。然而，关键的结论是，即使油价继续下跌，天然气最终也可能成为一项增长业务。

    再次，国际能源巨头的股价仍然坚挺。

    当华尔街对一个行业感到不满时，常常会看低相关的所有产业。能源板块的情况似乎就是如此。当前能源市场正在承受巨大的痛苦，许多曾经骄傲的巨头都陷入破产，不过，大型的资金充足的公司更有可能过关。大多数合并后的能源巨头都有可能幸存下来，但这些股票仍受到了残酷的冲击。

    即使是表现最好的公司道达尔(Total)，2020年也损失了大约三分之一的市值。表现最差的荷兰皇家壳牌(Royal Dutch Shell)股价下跌了50%左右。是的，收入是很糟糕的，但大多数大型跨国公司都有充足的财务资源来度过这次衰退，就像它们在以往的衰退中幸存下来一样。对于更勇敢的投资者来说，这些股票显然是在大甩卖。巨大的股息收益率表明了这里的价值，埃克森美孚、道达尔和壳牌都提供了接近历史收益率区间上限的较高个位数收益率。雪佛龙的产量也达到了中位数水平，创下了历史新高。如果你能忍受一些不确定性，那么对于价值型投资者和那些寻求高额红利的投资者来说，能源板块值得大幅跳水。

    最后，石油行业正在积极转型升级。

    考虑能源股的最后一个原因是，这个行业正在发生变化。虽然埃克森和雪佛龙目前基本上决定继续从事石油行业，但它们也有一些小规模的清洁能源项目在进行中。例如，埃克森正在考虑从藻类中制造生物燃料，这将使其能够在未来继续使用现有的石油基础设施。

    如上所述，道达尔的行动更加谨慎。该公司正在积极建立围绕电力和可再生能源的业务。但它并不是唯一一家这样做的公司。壳牌和英国石油都在实施类似的计划，如果不是更激进的话，这三家公司的目标都是确保在世界摆脱碳燃料后仍能占据一席之地。基本上，他们看到了石油行业的未来，并积极地为此做些事情。这并不是一个埋头苦干并祈祷事情会好转的行业。

    不过，不是每一个石油巨头的股票都可以入手。

    现在购买能源股显然存在风险。但当你看到该行业的失宠程度，再看看上述四点，你就会发现危机程度似乎有些过头了。你需要一个坚强的心，但如果你能在别人恐惧的时候投资，你可能想要在你的投资组合中增加一些石油类股票。

    现在该往哪里投资1000美元呢？在考虑埃克森美孚公司之前，你会想听听这个。投资传奇和Motley Fool联合创始人大卫和汤姆·加德纳刚刚公布了他们认为目前最适合投资者购买的10只股票……而埃克森美孚公司不是其中之一。

    王佳晶 摘译自 The Motley Fool

    原文如下：

    4 Reasons to Own Oil Stocks

    The energy industry has been deeply out of favor, but don't let that get to you. There are still very good reasons to own oil stocks. Here's four.

    There's a saying on Wall Street that you should buy when there's blood in the streets, which pretty much describes the situation in the energy patch today. The sector is deeply out of favor because of a massive supply/demand imbalance and a long-term global shift toward cleaner alternatives. So why would you want to own oil and natural gas stocks? Here are four reasons.

    1. Oil isn't dead

    There are very clear problems in the energy sector today. The most immediate is that oil and natural gas prices are so low that it's hard for drillers to make money. In fact, at one point in early 2020 a key U.S. oil benchmark briefly fell below zero. While prices have improved, they remain historically low. The economic shutdowns used to slow the early spread of the coronavirus and a long-term shift toward cleaner alternatives are both factors.

    However, oil and natural gas remain key players of the global energy pie. There's a huge infrastructure that supports them, and they won't be easily displaced. ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) expects the transition away from these carbon fuels to take decades -- after all, it took 100 years for oil to displace coal as the world's top energy source. In fact, even in some of the most aggressive estimates for clean energy adoption, oil will still remain important for years.

    That pairs with an important aspect of energy drilling: Wells eventually run dry. So even in a world that's using less oil, companies will have to keep exploring and developing new resources. In fact, at current investment levels, Exxon believes the world won't have enough oil and natural gas. If that's the case, the supply/demand imbalance that is muting prices today will ease and energy prices could rally. Oil and gas stock will also rally if that happens.

    2. The transition

    That's good, but there's another reason to be excited about the energy patch: natural gas. This fuel is cleaner-burning than oil and is often used to generate electricity. Electricity is expected to be one of the more important energy sources in the near future. Part of the reason for that is that natural gas-powered electricity plants, which can be turned on and off relatively quickly, pair nicely with intermittent renewable power sources like solar and wind. That helps ensure a constant flow of power throughout the day. So even as oil demand starts to slow, natural gas demand is expected to keep rising.

    Notably, this is a key piece of Total's (NYSE:TOT) business plan. Not only is it building an electricity business, but it's shifting its drilling efforts toward natural gas. The goal is to help support the world's move away from oil while building in some internal hedges for its increasingly important "electrons" business, which it believes will make up 15% of sales in 2030, up from 5% in 2019. Natural gas, meanwhile, is projected to be about 50% of sales, up from 40%. Oil should fall from 55% to 35%. The key takeaway, however, is that natural gas could end up being a growth business even if oil continues to decline.

    3. Valuation

    When Wall Street sours on an industry, it often throws the baby out with the bathwater. That appears to be the case in the energy patch. While there is a lot of pain today, with many once-proud names falling into bankruptcy, larger and well financed companies are going to muddle through. Most of the integrated energy giants are likely to be survivors. But the stocks have been brutally punished.

    Even the best performing name, Total, has lost roughly a third of its value so far in 2020. The worst performer, Royal Dutch Shell, is off by around 50%. Yes, earnings are terrible, but most of the big international players have ample financial resources to survive this downturn like they have survived downturns before. And for more intrepid investors, they are very clearly on sale. Huge dividend yields point to the value here, with Exxon, Total, and Shell all offering high-single-digit yields that are toward the upper bounds of their historical yield ranges. Chevron's yield, which is in the mid-single digits, is also historically high. If you can stomach some uncertainty, the energy sector is worth a deep dive for value-oriented investors and those in search of big dividends.

    4. Changing with the times

    The last reason to consider energy stocks is that the industry is changing. While Exxon and Chevron have basically decided to stick with oil for now, they have some small clean energy projects in the works. For example, Exxon is looking at creating biofuels from algae that would allow it to keep using its current oil infrastructure well into the future.

    That said, as noted above, Total is moving more deliberately. It is actively building a business around electricity and renewable power. But it isn't alone -- Shell and BP have both embarked on similar, if not more aggressive, plans. The goal of all three companies is to ensure they have a place after the world shifts away from carbon fuels. Basically, they see the writing on the wall, and are actively doing something about it. This is hardly an industry that's sticking its head in the ground and praying that things get better.

    Not for everyone

    There are clearly risks involved with buying an energy stock today. But when you look at how deeply out of favor the sector is and consider the four points above, the pain seems a bit overdone. You'll need a strong stomach, but if you can invest when others are fearful, you might want to add some oil to your portfolio today.

    Where to invest $1,000 right now

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