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| 2020-11-18 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据11月16日FXstreet报道，对石油市场有利的一面是，预计欧佩克+将把提高石油产量的时间再推迟3至6个月。 如果美国石油的日趋势线突破低点，只要价格保持在趋势线以下，卖方仍可保持期待。不过，这种贸易的主要风险是，市场对新冠肺炎疫苗的乐观情绪对支撑油价走高的影响程度。 从季节性角度看，美国石油目前正进入今年最疲软的时间段之一，受季节性因素影响，美国原油价格的跌幅往往很大，不过，具体会受到怎么样的冲击也很难下定论。 值得一提的是，虽然已经有了疫苗，但要看到它的具体成效，并且能够在主要经济体流通还需要一段时间。此外，上周的库存报告显示，库存意外增加，超过400万桶/天。 王佳晶 摘译自 FXstreet 原文如下： On the plus side for oil we have expectations that OPEC+ will delay oil’s output hikes for another 3-6 months. If the daily trend line on US oil breaks lower, expect sellers as long as price remains below the trend line. Trade Risks: The main risk to this trade is if the COVID-19 vaccine optimism helps support oil prices higher. US oil is now entering one of its weakest periods of the year from a seasonal perspective. The losses in US crude oil tends to be large over a seasonal perspective. Will this seasonal pattern come into play for the rest of this month? Some factors that suggest it might are the fact that Libya has reached full production and Iran may add 500K bpd to supply levels if Biden’s Presidency Is more open to Iran and lifts sanctions. Although a vaccine is in place it will be some time before it is seen to be effective and circulating in major economies. Furthermore, the inventory report last week saw a strong surprise build in the headline figure of over 4 million barrels per day. |
