欧佩克+预计明年石油市场将出现赤字

    中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2020年11月17日维也纳报道，俄罗斯塔斯社援引监督减产协议执行情况的联合部长级监督委员会的文件称，欧佩克+减产协议延长3到6个月将导致明年石油市场出现赤字。

    根据这些文件，欧佩克正在考虑2021年延长石油协议的4种可能情况。其中两种情况是基于最初的安排，包括进一步放宽减产幅度，从1月份的每日770万桶降至每日580万桶。

    在这两种情况下，全球石油库存将继续减少，但石油库存总量仍将远高于5年的平均水平。在较温和的新冠肺炎疫情影响情况下，2021年的石油库存将比5年平均水平高出1.25亿桶，在较严重的新冠肺炎疫情影响情景下，2021年的石油库存将比5年平均水平高出4.7亿桶。这将导致石油市场190万桶/天的过剩供应。

    但在更严格的生产限制条件下，减产幅度将更大：如果减产协议延长3个月至3月底，全球库存到明年年底将只比5年平均水平高出7300万桶。如果减产延长到6月底，原油总库存量将仅比5年平均水平高出2100万桶。这些数据转化为每天90万桶到140万桶的供应缺口。

    欧佩克+11月18日召开的会议结束时，尽管一些成员国似乎愿意从明年1月起进一步减产，以恢复石油市场的平衡，但各方普遍支持将减产期限延长3个月。

    李峻 编译自 油价网

    原文如下：

    OPEC+ Expects Oil Market Deficit Next Year

    The extension of the OPEC+ production cut deal by three to six months will swing the oil market into a deficit next year, TASS reported, citing documents produced by the joint ministerial committee that monitors the deal.

    According to the documents, the extended oil cartel is considering four possible scenarios for 2021. Two of these are based on following the initial arrangements, including a further relaxation of cuts from 7.7 million bpd to 5.8 million bpd from January.

    Under these two scenarios, the drawdown in global oil stockpiles will continue, but the total will remain well above the five-year average. In the milder pandemic effect scenario, oil inventories will be 125 million barrels higher in 2021 than the five-year average, and in the more severe pandemic effect scenario, these will be 470 million higher than the five-year average. This will translate into an excess supply of 1.9 million bpd.

    Yet under the tougher production restrictions scenarios, the drawdown will be more significant: if the cuts deal is extended by three months, until the end of March, global inventories will only end up being 73 million barrels higher than the five-year average by the end of 2021. If the cuts are extended until the end of June, the total supply will be just 21 million barrels higher than the five-year average. These figures translate into a daily supply deficit of between 900,000 bpd and 1.4 million bpd.

    OPEC+’s meeting from yesterday ended with overall support for extending the production cuts by three months, although some members have appeared willing to resort to even deeper cuts from January to restore balance on oil markets.