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| 2020-11-30 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据管道&天然气杂志网11月25日曼尼托巴路透社报道，根据加拿大能源监管机构(CER)周二预测，加拿大石油产量将在未来近20年继续增加，这将放缓该国2050年实现净零排放目标的进程。 据CER称，到2050年，化石燃料将占加拿大燃料结构的60%以上，尽管国内消耗可能在2019年已达到峰值。 这一展望基于全球应对气候变化的行动将继续增加的假设之上。 这一预测呼应了许多石油生产国本月的说法，即尽管全球能源转型正在进行，但对化石燃料的需求在未来许多年内仍将保持强劲。 与欧洲石油生产商转向更大规模的可再生能源生产不同，加拿大公司一直专注于减少每桶排放。 加拿大是世界第四大原油生产国，其原油大部分出口。加拿大石油日产量预计将于2039年达到峰值580万桶，目前约为440万桶。 CER首席经济学家达伦?克里斯蒂(Darren Christie)表示，由于预计全球油价将在大流行后反弹，从目前的每桶48美元升至55美元，这将触发油砂行业的扩建，石油产量将因此而增加。 Christie表示，即便如此，到2050年，加拿大乘用车销量的一半将是电动汽车。 CER表示，目前在建的出口管道将足以处理所有预计的额外产量。 郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网 原文如下： Canadian Oil Output Seen Expanding until 2039 Canadian oil production will expand for nearly two more decades, slowing the country's progress toward achieving the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) forecast on Tuesday. Fossil fuels will make up more than 60% of Canada's fuel mix in 2050, even though domestic consumption likely peaked in 2019, the CER said. The outlook is based on an assumption that global actions against climate change will continue to increase. The forecast echoes what many oil producers said this month - that while a global energy transition is underway, fossil fuel demand will remain strong for many years to come. Unlike European oil producers that are shifting to greater renewable energy production, Canadian companies have focused on reducing emissions per barrel. Canada, the world's fourth-largest producer, exports most of its crude. Canadian output looks to peak at 5.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2039 from around 4.4 million bpd currently. Oil production will expand based on an expected global price rebound after the pandemic to $55 per barrel from $48 currently, triggering expansion in the oil sands, CER Chief Economist Darren Christie said. Even so, by 2050, half of Canada's passenger vehicle sales will be electric, Christie said. Export pipelines currently under construction will be enough to handle all forecast additional output, the CER said. |
