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| 2020-12-01 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据Rigzone网站11月26日报导，彭博社消息，自疫情压低全球石油需求以来，市场首次显示出强劲的迹象，美国最大的石油仓储中心库存将逐渐减少。 美国政府数据显示，上周俄克拉荷马州库欣的原油库存降至约6,000万桶，为10月初以来的最低水平。随着原油期货溢价缩小致使储存原油获利降低，原油价格的下降将继续下去。在这种情况下，附近合约的价格低于未来合约的价格，通常会促使交易员持有不需要的石油。 随着疫情已接近爆发一周年，更多的疫苗被宣布用于抗击疫情，预计全球石油需求将很快恢复到接近正常的水平。 市场对于长期期货合约的需求似乎更加坚挺。周二，2021年12月交割的西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格较2022年12月交割的期货价格出现了溢价，这是今年2月以来的首次溢价。这种看涨的市场结构被称为“现货溢价”(backwardation)，即较近的合约价格高于较远的合约价格。此外，海外市场对美国原油的需求将上升，因西德克萨斯中质原油较全球指标布伦特原油的贴水扩大，预示美国原油供应将进一步减少。 减产也发挥了一定作用。OPEC +将在下周举行会议，鉴于应对冠状病毒采取的新封锁，人们普遍预期OPEC +将把最初计划在1月份结束的每天190万桶减产再延长几个月。 沈彦 摘译自 Rigzone 原文如下： Stronger Oil Curve Points to Cushing Glut Relief Oil stockpiles at America’s largest storage hub are set to unwind with the market showing real signs of strength for the first time since the pandemic crushed global demand. Crude stockpiles in Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for West Texas Intermediate futures, fell to about 60 million barrels last week, the lowest since early October, U.S. government data show. The drawdown is set to continue with the contango in the oil curve shrinking to levels that make storing crude uneconomic. The condition, where prices for nearby contracts are lower than those further in the future, typically prompts traders to hold on to unneeded oil. The development comes on expectations that global petroleum demand could return soon to near-normal levels as more vaccines are announced to combat the outbreak that is reaching its one-year anniversary. The market is looking even firmer for longer-dated futures contracts. For the first time since February, the December 2021 West Texas Intermediate contract settled Tuesday at a premium to futures in December 2022 -- a bullish market structure known as backwardation where nearer contracts cost more than those further out. Also, demand for U.S. crude in overseas markets is set to pick with the WTI’s discount to the global benchmark Brent crude widening, which points to further drawdowns in U.S. supplies. Supply cuts have also played a part. The OPEC+ alliance, which is set to meet next week virtually, is widely expected to extend 1.9 million-barrels-a-day in production cuts for a few more months in light of renewed coronavirus lockdowns. These production curbs were initially scheduled to end in January. |
