|
| 2020-12-01 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
 |
 |
石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据管道&天然气杂志网11月25日莫斯科/伦敦路透社报道，据三名熟悉欧佩克+的消息人士称，尽管油价上涨，但欧佩克和包括俄罗斯在内的盟国倾向于推迟明年计划中的石油增产计划，以在新冠肺炎第二波爆发和利比亚产量上升期间支撑市场。 欧佩克+原本计划明年1月份将日产量提高200万桶，约占全球消费量的2%，以缓解今年创纪录的减产。随着需求疲软，欧佩克+一直在考虑推迟增产。 据一位熟悉情况的消息人士称，如果有必要，俄罗斯可能同意将当前产量水平延续到明年第一季，并倾向于稍后决定是否将延续到第二季。看来有必要延长期限。他指出，在第二波病毒爆发期间，“可能出现价格下跌和需求不确定性”。 油价在过去一周上涨，升至自3月以来的最高水平，接近每桶49美元，因市场预期冠状病毒疫苗将导致需求上升。 代表们表示，这并没有改变欧佩克+对延长减产的想法。 据一位人士称，价格的上涨与情绪有关，但我们需要扩大市场基本面，以支撑价格。 到目前为止，最好的选择是延长三个月。 不过，代表和分析人士表示，并不是所有人都对延长削减有热情。 高盛本周表示，一个潜在的复杂因素是，阿拉伯联合酋长国希望欧佩克+增加产出配额。 尼日利亚也希望获得更高的产出配额，而伊拉克谈到了免于2021年的配额削减。 但高盛表示，其不指望阿联酋的这种推动会破坏延期计划，伊拉克也表示将支持欧佩克+的任何一致决定。 本周举行了几次技术会议，为星期一和星期二的部长级会议奠定基础。 由于新冠疫情，所有会议都是虚拟的。 摩根大通董事总经理兼油气研究主管Christyan Malek表示，尽管油价上涨，但他预计欧佩克将把增产计划最多推迟6个月，因为沙特阿拉伯可能会在明年3月之前提出更大幅度的自愿减产。库存下降的速度没有预期的那么快。封锁正从东向西转移，预计美国还会有更多的封锁。 郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网 原文如下： OPEC+ Still Leans Toward Extension Despite Rally OPEC and allies including Russia are leaning towards delaying next year's planned increase in oil output to support the market during the second wave of COVID-19 and rising Libyan output, despite a rise in prices, three sources close to OPEC+ said. OPEC+ was due to raise output by 2 million bpd in January - about 2% of global consumption - as it moves to ease this year's record supply cuts. With demand weakening, OPEC+ has been considering delaying the increase. Russia is likely to agree on a rollover of current output for the first quarter if needed, a source familiar with the issue said, and would prefer to decide later on extending for the second quarter. "It looks like the extension is needed," the source said, citing "possible price drops and demand uncertainties" amid the second wave of the virus. Oil has rallied in the past week, rising to its highest since March near $49 a barrel on hopes that coronavirus vaccines will lead to higher demand. This hasn't changed OPEC+ thinking around the extension, delegates said. "This increase in prices is about sentiment, but we need to extend to have solid market fundamentals to support the prices," said one. "So far, the best choice is the three-month extension." Still, enthusiasm for extended cuts is not universal, delegates and analysts say. A potential complication is the United Arab Emirates' wish for a higher OPEC+ quota, Goldman Sachs said this week. Nigeria also wants a higher quota, and Iraq has talked about being exempt from 2021 reductions. But Goldman said it did not expect such a push from the UAE to derail the extension, and Iraq has said it will support any unanimous OPEC+ decision. There are several technical meetings this week to prepare the ground for ministerial gatherings on Monday and Tuesday. All meetings are virtual due to the pandemic. Christyan Malek, managing director and head of oil & gas research at J.P. Morgan, said he expected OPEC+ to delay the increase by up to six months despite the price rally, with Saudi Arabia possibly offering deeper voluntary cuts until March. "Inventories are not coming down as quickly as expected. And lockdowns are moving east to west, with more lockdowns expected in the U.S.," he said. |
