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| 2020-12-02 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2020年11月25日休斯敦报道，美国银行说，由于人们对新冠肺炎疫苗的乐观情绪日益高涨以及由于旅行限制放松，布伦特原油价格在明年夏天可能达到每桶60美元。 彭博社援引美国银行的话报道说，由于到2021年年中前将造成全球石油需求每天160万桶的赤字，因此限制的放松将导致石油需求的增加，这将推高油价。 据彭博社报道，尽管有警告称现在购买疫苗注射还为时过早，但对疫苗的乐观情绪已经把油价推到8个月来的最高水平。 越来越有可能的欧佩克+延长减产协议也推动了油价上涨。欧佩克将在下周开会讨论减产协议延期事宜。根据高盛公司的预测，欧佩克+将把目前每日减产770万桶的计划延长3个月，这将把布兰特原油价格推高至每桶47美元。 有趣的是，美国银行的分析师日前警告说，不要对辉瑞、Moderna和阿斯利康最新疫苗发布的消息过于乐观。 美国银行分析师说，“我们说，由于疫苗分配前的乐观情绪升温，信贷和股票价格将在未来几个月见顶，这是因为它们的配置将见顶，政策将见顶，利润将见顶。” 即便如此，交易商们仍在成群结队地买入这种炒作。即便是像EIA的最新每周更新报告显示美国石油日产量已升至1090万桶的看跌消息，以及美国石油学会昨日公布的估计库存增加数据，也未能阻止油价的上涨。 李峻 编译自 油价网 原文如下： Bank Of America Sees $60 Oil Next Summer Brent crude could hit $60 a barrel by next summer as travel restrictions get eased, Bank of America said, citing growing optimism around Covid-19 vaccines. The easing of restrictions will lead to a boost in oil demand, the bank said, as quoted by Bloomberg, and this will boost prices as it creates a deficit of 1.6 million bpd by mid-2021. Vaccine optimism has already pushed oil prices to the highest in eight months despite warnings that it is too early to buy into the vaccine hype, which has this month alone spurred a 25-percent jump in oil prices, according to Bloomberg. The increasingly likely extension of OPEC+ production cuts has helped prices along, too. The cartel is meeting next week to discuss the extension. According to a forecast by Goldman Sachs, OPEC+ will extend the current cuts of 7.7 million bpd by three months, which would push Brent crude to $47 a barrel. Interestingly enough, it was Bank of America analysts who last week warned against excessive optimism based on the latest vaccine updates from Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. “We say credit and equity prices (are) to peak in coming months on peak positioning, peak policy, peak profits as optimism tops ahead of vaccine distribution,” they said. Even so, traders are buying the hype in droves. Even bearish news such as the EIA’s latest weekly update that showed U.S. oil production had risen to 10.9 million bpd and an estimated inventory build reported yesterday by the American Petroleum Institute did not stop the rally. |
