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| 2020-12-03 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社11月30日报道，在欧佩克+成员国难以就是否提高原油产量或延长减产达成一致意见之际，或许应该把目光转向亚洲，因为亚洲是石油消费最主要和增长最快的地区。 欧佩克+成员国的领导人们定于周一和周二会面,将敲定是否将现有的每日减产770万桶的减产规模延期,或者考虑在2021年1月逐步增加供应。 周日举行的初步会议并没有达成共识，在现有减产措施将维持多久，或是否应逐步提高产出的问题上，各成员国存在分歧。 值得一提的是，亚洲目前的石油需求占全球总量的36%，占未来几年预期增幅的近80%。 根据Refinitiv Oil Research编制的船舶跟踪和港口数据，11月亚洲原油进口总量预计将达到2504万桶/天。这比10月份的2260万桶/天高出了11%——10月份是2020年迄今为止的亚洲原油进口量最低的月份。 这些数据可以证实，亚洲原油需求正开始从各国为遏制新冠肺炎疫情蔓延而采取的各项措施所造成的经济打击中复苏。 但值得注意的是，11月份原油进口量仍远低于1月的2567万桶/天，中国将是从疫情中恢复过来的首个国家，随后亚洲其他地区也将满满恢复。 对欧佩克+来说，更令人担忧的可能是亚洲11月份进口量的下滑，而进口量增长的那部分很大程度上归因于中国购买量的反弹。 全球基准布伦特原油期货价格在10月2日跌至39.27美元/桶的三个月来低点，虽然有所回升，但当月最高收盘价格出现在10月8日为43.34美元/桶，10月30日跌至37.46美元/桶。此后布伦特原油价格反弹，11月27日收于每桶48.18美元，原因是市场对新冠肺炎疫苗试验成功后原油需求从明年开始复苏的预期变得更加乐观。 同样值得注意的是，沙特阿拉伯通过降低10月份交货货物的官方售价，努力夺回亚洲市场份额，特别是在中国的市场份额。该公司将其旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油的价格从9月份每桶90美分的溢价，下调至50美分。 亚洲其他主要石油买家表现好坏参半，印度11月份原油日进口量仅微幅下滑，为388万桶/天，低于10月的392万桶/天。 日本11月份原油日进口量预估为256万桶，高于10月份的209万桶；韩国11月份原油日进口量预估为261万桶，与10月份的262万桶持平。 总而言之，这些国家的进口量仍远低于疫情爆发前的水平。尽管近几个月市场出现了一些复苏迹象，但仍不能给予一个乐观的未来。 王佳晶 摘译自 路透社 原文如下： Column: OPEC+ should look to Asia's uneven, uncertain crude oil recovery As members of the OPEC+ group struggle to come up with a united view on whether to boost crude oil output or extend production cuts, they should perhaps turn their eyes to Asia, the major consuming and fastest-growing region. The leaders of OPEC+, a grouping comprising members of the of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plus Russia and others, are scheduled to meet on Monday and Tuesday to hammer out whether to roll over existing production cuts of 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or allow output to increase from January as previously agreed. An initial meeting on Sunday ended without consensus, with members of the group split on how long to keep the existing cuts in place, or whether a gradual increase in output should be implemented. The current oil demand situation in Asia, which accounts for about 36% of the global total and almost 80% of expected growth in coming years, shows the nature of the dilemma facing OPEC+. Total crude imports for November for Asia are estimated at 25.04 million bpd, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv Oil Research. This is 11% higher than the 22.6 million bpd for October, which was the lowest month so far in 2020. The data does suggest that Asian crude demand is starting to recover from the economic hit caused by countries locking down in efforts to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic. But it’s worth noting that November’s estimated crude imports are still well short of the 25.67 million bpd recorded in January, the last month before the pandemic starting curbing demand, first in China and then across the rest of the region. What may be even more concerning for OPEC+ is the breakdown of Asia’s November imports, with much of the increase being down to a rebound in China’s buying. China is on track to import about 11.56 million bpd, according to Refinitiv, up 15% from October’s 10.06 million bpd. The question is why is China buying more crude, especially since it’s still busy digesting the record volumes purchased during April’s brief price war between OPEC+ heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, which took until last month to be fully delivered. The answer may lie in the fact that oil prices were low during the period when November-arriving cargoes were purchased, from late September through to October. Global benchmark Brent futures dropped to a closing three-month low of $39.27 a barrel on Oct. 2, and while they did recover somewhat, the highest close for that month was $43.34 on Oct. 8, and they dropped to close at $37.46 on Oct. 30. Since then Brent has recovered to end at $48.18 a barrel on Nov. 27, as the market became more optimistic about a recovery in crude demand from next year on the back of successful trials of vaccines for COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. It’s also worth noting that Saudi Arabia made some effort to regain market share in Asia, and particularly in China, by lowering its official selling prices for October-loading cargoes. It flipped the price of its flagship Arab Light grade to a discount of 50 cents a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average from a premium of 90 cents in September. The rest of Asia’s major buyers present something of a mixed picture, with India only slightly weaker in November at 3.88 million bpd, down from October’s 3.92 million bpd. Japan is forecast to import 2.56 million bpd in November, up from 2.09 million bpd in October, while South Korea is expected to import 2.61 million bpd, steady from October’s 2.62 million bpd. The common factor is that imports are still running well below pre-pandemic levels. While there has been some recovery in recent months, the question still remains as to whether this is enough to support a bullish narrative. |
