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| 2020-12-07 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网伦敦报道，对于天然气是“过渡燃料”的说法正在被取代。然而，对天然气的需求却不那么容易被取代。就在几年前，天然气还被誉为跨越化石燃料时代和可再生能源时代的燃料，现在却发现自己成了环保组织和政府日益增长的反对和压力的目标。 天然气最近被欧盟剥夺了过渡地位。这可能听起来像是笑话的开始，但欧盟实际上是非常严肃的：在一份新规则草案中，欧洲当局设定了一个燃气发电厂每千瓦时排放100克二氧化碳当量的上限。由于投资者会蜂拥而至，投资那些打着令人垂涎的“转型”标签的项目，而对于这些燃气发电厂来说，这则是一个无法达到的水平，这意味着它们可能会损失数十亿美元的资金。然而，无论欧盟给不同形式的能源生产贴上什么标签，天然气很可能仍将是能源转型中的关键角色。 几十年来，世界天然气需求一直在稳步增长。据IEA称，今年世界的能源需求将有所下降，但这是新冠肺炎疫情大流行及其对总体能源需求影响的结果，而不是趋势的开始。对天然气需求的长期预测往往是积极的，这是因为化石燃料中污染最严重的煤炭需要用某种东西来取代，而这个“东西”不可能仅仅是太阳能和风能。 能源技术咨询公司Thunder Said 能源公司的创始人兼首席研究分析师罗布•韦斯特11月早些时候在石油经济学家LNG-to-Power Emea论坛上表示，“我们已经建立了如何两次实现世界脱碳的模型。”他说，“到2050年前，可获取能以最低成本获得净零(碳)能源的方法，那就是将天然气需求增加两倍。我们这个能源系统届时将有400万亿立方英尺(11.32万亿立方米)的天然气。” 西方肯定不是唯一一个认为天然气对降低世界排放不可或缺的国家。德国是能源转型的最大推动者之一，也是太阳能和风能的热情采纳者，也是令华盛顿与柏林针锋相对的“北溪-2号”天然气管道项目背后的推动者。 这与俄罗斯对欧洲最大经济体的政治影响力无关。这是关于俄罗斯管道天然气和美国液化天然气的问题。如果说这还不足以说明天然气的未来，那么，参与该项目的欧洲公司的首席执行官们不顾华盛顿的制裁威胁而坚持自己的立场，这应该是一个事实。 11月早些时候，奥地利石油天然气集团(OMV)首席执行官Rainer Seele对彭博社记者表示，“我们将继续致力于北溪-2项目。我不会讨论退出向这个项目提供资金，它不在我讨论的范围内。” Seele 当时还说，“我们已经完成了我们的工作，我们已经为这个项目提供了资金。”“如果北溪-2项目没有完成会发生什么？欧洲可能不得不从美国进口更多液化天然气，这就是这个计划背后的紧张局势。” 当然，欧洲并不是世界上唯一的天然气市场。欧洲甚至还不是最大的天然气市场。最大的天然气市场是亚洲，而且在未来几年(如果不是几十年的话)，亚洲很可能仍将是最大的天然气市场。亚洲也在脱碳，其脱碳的方式说明了天然气的桥梁性质。尽管有关于太阳能和风能成本下降的宣传，中国和印度并没有关闭他们的燃煤发电厂去建造大规模的太阳能和风能发电厂。他们正在将燃煤发电厂转向天然气，并建造太阳能和风力发电场。 在这一过程中可能会出现问题。世界知名能源情报机构伍德麦肯兹最近预测，投资者行为的变化可能会导致未来20年全球天然气投资差不多减少1万亿美元。 伍德麦肯兹亚太地区副总裁加文•汤普森在11月早些时候的一份新闻稿中表示，由于越来越多的基金经理接受ESG筛选，可持续投资正在蓬勃发展，投资者在碳排放方面的行动主义已成为主流。对天然气碳排放强度越来越严格的审查，正在影响有关未来供应的投资决定。 李峻 编译自 油价网 原文如下： Natural Gas Demand Will Grow For Decades To Come The “bridge fuel” narrative for natural gas is being replaced. Not so easily replaced, however, is the demand for natural gas. Natural gas—just a couple of years ago hailed as the fuel that will bridge the fossil fuel era and the renewable energy era—now finds itself the target of growing opposition and pressure from environmental groups and governments. Natural gas was recently denied transition status by the European Union. This might sound like the start of the joke, but Brussels is, in fact, very serious: in a draft new rule, the European authorities set an emissions limit of 100 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt-hour for gas-fired power plants. This is a level unattainable for these plants, which means they could lose billions in funding as investors flock to projects with the coveted “transition” label. And yet, whatever labels the EU attaches to different forms of energy generation, gas is likely to remain a key player of the energy transition. The world’s natural gas demand has been growing steadily for decades. This year it will inch down, according to the International Energy Agency, but this will be a result of the pandemic and its impact on general energy demand rather than the start of a trend. The long-term projections for gas demand tend to be positive because the highest polluter among the fossil fuels, coal, needs to be replaced with something. This “something” cannot be solar and wind alone. “I have built models of how we can decarbonise the world twice over,” Rob West, founder and principal research analyst at energy technology consultancy Thunder Said Energy told the Petroleum Economist LNG-to-Power Emea forum earlier this month. “And the lowest-cost way I can get to net-zero [carbon] energy by 2050 is to treble the demand for natural gas. We are going to have 400tn ft³ [11.32tcm] of gas in this energy system.” West is certainly not alone in arguing that gas is indispensable for lowering the world’s emissions. Germany, one of the biggest drivers of the energy transition and enthusiastic adopter of solar and wind energy, is also the driver behind the Nord Stream 2 project that pitted Washington against Berlin. It’s not about Russian political influence over Europe’s largest economy. It’s about Russian pipe gas versus U.S. LNG. And if this is not telling enough about the future of gas, then the fact that the CEOs of European companies involved in the project are sticking to their guns despite the sanction threats from Washington should be. “We continue to be committed to Nord Stream 2,” the chief executive of Austria’s OMV told Bloomberg earlier this month. “I am not discussing an exit on financing the project. It is not on my table.” “We have done our job already, we have already financed the project,” Seele also said at the time. “What happens in the case Nord Stream 2 is not finished? Europe might have to import more LNG from the U.S. and that is the tension behind the initiative.” Europe is not the only gas market in the world, of course. It’s not even the biggest. The biggest market for gas is Asia, and it is likely to remain the biggest in the coming years, if not decades. Asia is decarbonizing, too, and the way it is doing it illustrates the bridge nature of gas. Despite the hype around the falling costs of solar and wind, China and India are not shutting down their coal power plants and building massive solar and wind farms. They are switching the power plants to gas and building solar and wind farms. And there may be a problem on the way. Wood Mackenzie recently forecast that changes in investor behavior could slash investment in natural gas by as much as $1 trillion over the next 20 years. “Sustainable investment is booming and investor activism on carbon has gone mainstream as more fund managers embrace ESG screening. This increasing scrutiny of gas’ carbon intensity is shaping investment decisions on future supply,” Wood Mackenzie Asia Pacific vice president Gavin Thompson said in a news release earlier this month. |
