石油需求峰值是否即将到来

    中国石化新闻网讯 据12月2日FXstreet报道，一年前，如果有人称，2020年油价将跌破负值，世界经济将崩溃，股市将创历史新高，一定有人对此嗤之以鼻。2019年，能源分析师还没有“石油峰值”的概念，对石油需求毁灭的预测几乎是不存在的，除非出现新的新技术创新，并对化石燃料产生巨大影响，但这种情况的出现微乎其微。

    值得注意的是，如今越来越多的能源分析师预测，从现在开始，石油需求将继续下降。最近油价的改善与各大经济体慢慢恢复正常有关，这在很大程度上是因为新冠肺炎疫苗乐观信号的出现。但我们真的会回到疫情爆发前的水平么，说实话，不大可能。

    疫情给人们的行为、在家工作的能力以及随之而来的旅行和交通需求带来了永久性的改变。且这并不是未来10年或20年石油面临的唯一压力，电池和电动汽车越来越受欢迎，特别是随着电池技术的不断发展，要知道，最近多家电池制造商满足了每英里100美元的价格里程碑。

    此外还需考虑监管因素，当前，越来越多的限制正在增加，且来自多个方面：对内燃机销售的限制，对以化石燃料为基础的能源供应商的融资限制，更严格的排放协议等等，某些城市甚至实施了禁令。

    2028年至2040年期间，电池需求将超过石油，峰值将出现在2035年。尽管油价正在回升，但石油需求可能永远不会完全恢复到过去的辉煌时期。

    王佳晶 摘译自 FXstreet

    原文如下：

    Has peak oil been and gone?

    If I had of said to most of you reading this a year ago that 2020 would see negative oil prices, the world economy collapse and record highs in the stock market, you would have laughed me all the way to a padded cell. The same can be said for oil, in 2019 energy analysts had no concept of peak oil on the radar. Forecasts for oil demand destruction were almost nonexistence bar the improbable chance of a new technological innovation that would act like a meteor to fossil fuels as it did to the dinosaurs.

    But here we are now with growing numbers of energy analysts forecasting that from here on out; oil demand is going to continue to decline. The most recent improvements in oil prices have been linked to the return to normality, driven largely by the introduction of a workable vaccine for COVID-19. But are we truly going back to the same economy that we had pre-pandemic? Would we even want that to happen? Probably not.

    The pandemic has created permanent changes in people behaviors, the ability to work from home and subsequent reduction in travel and transport needs. But this isn’t the only price pressure that oil is facing over the next decade or two, batteries and the electric vehicle have seen increased popularity, especially with constant developments in battery technology. An it gets worse, recently the price parity milestone, the point at which batteries reach $100 per mile has been met by multiple manufacturers.

    We can’t forget about regulation either, more and more restrictions are being added with many coming from multiple angles. Restrictions on internal combustion engine sales, financing restrictions for fossil fuel-based energy providers, tighter emissions protocol, the list goes on, even bans have been put in place in certain cities.

    So far estimates put a range between 2028 and 2040 with the most commonly applied date range in 2035 for oil to be surpassed by batteries. With estimates like this it certainly paints the picture that while oil prices are recovering, oil demand likely will never fully recover to the glory days.