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| 2020-12-10 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油气新闻12月7日消息称，根据领先数据分析公司GlobalData的预测，2020年全球页岩油产量大幅下降，页岩油产量预计将同比下降11.7%，页岩气产量可能下降4.5%。自2020年3月COVID-19大流行以来，全球石油和天然气市场需求大幅下降。除非有有效的疫苗，否则全球能源需求的不确定性将继续压低油价，并推迟页岩产业的复苏。 GlobalData最新的专题报告《页岩》指出，美国在2019年引领全球页岩行业，页岩油产量所占份额超过98%，页岩气产量所占份额超过78%。除了美国，加拿大和阿根廷也在进行页岩油气生产。COVID-19大流行对美国页岩产业的影响尤其严重。随着油价下跌，由于盈亏平衡成本上升，美国许多油田的页岩油开采变得不可行。 GlobalData石油和天然气分析师拉文德拉?普拉尼克(Ravindra Puranik)表示:“自2014年油价暴跌后复苏以来，美国页岩市场一直表现活跃。2018年和2019年，各主要产区的页岩油气产量总体呈上升趋势。然而，今年的经济低迷给页岩行业带来了前所未有的挑战。它破坏了该行业的最新势头，可能需要数年的时间才能恢复。” 页岩行业，尤其是在北美，在经济衰退中首当其冲。这导致参与页岩业务的油气公司削减了2020年的资本支出计划。仅在二叠纪盆地，主要页岩钻井公司就将今年的资本支出计划削减了逾180亿美元。 最近油价稳定在40美元左右。相对较低的公司估值和逐渐改善的油价，鼓励了一些运营商在页岩行业进行并购。最近，雪佛龙以130亿美元的估值完成了对诺布尔能源公司的收购。 Puranik总结道:“低能源需求和低油价预计将对页岩行业的并购活动产生重大影响。从事页岩行业的公司可以尝试通过合并来减轻经济低迷期间的损失，今年的事件可能会加速页岩气行业的并购趋势。” 曹海斌 摘译自 油气新闻 原文如下： Global shale industry on a recovery path after 8.1% production decline in 2020, says GlobalData Global shale production has taken a drastic hit in 2020, where shale oil is expected to drop by 11.7% year-on-year and shale gas production may see a 4.5% fall, according to projections by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. Market demand for oil and gas plummeted globally from March 2020, following the COVID-19 pandemic. Unless an effective vaccine is made available, the uncertainty in global energy demand will continue to weigh down oil prices, and delay shale industry recovery. GlobalData’s latest thematic report, ‘Shale’, notes that the US led the global shale industry in 2019 – with over 98% share in shale oil production and over 78% share in shale gas production. Apart from the US, shale oil and gas production is also carried out in Canada and Argentina. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly harsh on the US shale industry. As oil prices fell, shale operations became unviable in many US plays due to higher breakeven cost. Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The US shale market has been vibrant since recovering from the 2014 price crash. Shale oil and gas production across major plays was generally on an upward trend in 2018 and 2019. However, the downturn this year has brought in unprecedented challenges to the shale industry. It has disrupted the recent momentum of the industry and may take years to recover.” Shale industry, especially in North America, has faced the brunt of the economic downturn. This has led oil and gas companies involved in shale operations to reduce their planned capital expenditure for 2020. In the Permian Basin alone, major shale drillers reduced their planned capital expenditure for this year by over $18bn. Oil prices have stabilized of late around the $40 mark. Comparatively low company valuations and gradually improving oil prices have encouraged some operators to undertake M&As in the shale industry. Recently, Chevron completed the acquisition of Noble Energy for a valuation of $13bn. Puranik concludes: “Low energy demand and the low oil prices is expected to have a significant impact on the M&A activity within the shale industry. Companies operating in the shale industry could attempt to mitigate the losses borne during the downturn through consolidation. The events of this year are likely to hasten the M&A trend in the shale industry.” |
