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| 2020-12-15 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据Oil & Gas Journal网站12月9日报道 根据雷斯塔能源公司的一份报告，尽管由于疫情影响和能源转型加速，未来需求减少，除非勘探大幅加快，资本支出至少达到3万亿美元，否则到2050年，全球将耗尽足够的石油供应，以满足其需求。 为了满足未来30年的全球累计需求，目前的生产资产中需要增加未开发和未发现的资源，总计3130亿桶石油。据雷斯塔能源计算，为了满足这一要求，勘探项目必须在2050年前发现一个有价值开发1390亿桶新石油的资源，如果这十年的低勘探活动水平持续下去，这是一项不可能完成的任务。 这一目标较高，因为并非所有现有的发现量都利于开发。 雷斯塔能源高级上游分析师Palzor Shenga说：“理论上，2021年至2050年间，未开发石油供应总量将达到2480亿桶。然而，当我们深入研究这些发现，审视它们的发现年代和现状，我们发现约740亿桶的原油不太可能实现，需要被新发现所代替。” 吴恒磊 编译自 Oil & Gas Journal 原文如下： Rystad: Exploration must be accelerated to meet world oil demand The world is on track to run out of sufficient oil supplies to meet its needs through 2050, despite lower future demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the accelerating energy transition unless exploration speeds up significantly and capital expenditure of at least $3 trillion is put to the task, according to a Rystad Energy report. To meet the global cumulative demand over the next 30 years, undeveloped and undiscovered resources totaling 313 billion bbl of oil need to be added to currently producing assets. Rystad Energy calculates that, to match this requirement, exploration programs will have to discover a worthy-to-develop resource of 139 billion new barrels of liquids by 2050, an impossible task if this decade’s low exploration activity levels persist, it said. The target is high because not all existing discovered volumes are profitable to develop. “In theory, the total undeveloped supply would amount to 248 billion bbl of oil between 2021 and 2050. However, when we dive deeper into these discoveries and look at their discovery decade and current status, we find that about 74 billion bbl are highly unlikely to materialize and need to be replaced by new discoveries,” said Palzor Shenga, senior upstream analyst at Rystad Energy. |
