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| 2020-12-16 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网12月10日巴黎报道，《巴黎气候协定》签署5年后，化石燃料仍主导着能源格局，但可再生能源的增长最为强劲，就连新冠疫情也没有削弱这种增长。 专注于可持续发展和国际关系的IDDRI智库的尼古拉斯·伯格曼斯(Nicolas Berghmans)表示，可再生能源:风能在背后——“化石燃料仍占主导地位，但形势明显有利于可再生电力。 根据国际可再生能源署(International Renewable Energy Agency)的数据显示，近年来，太阳能电池板的装机发电量出现了惊人的增长，从2015年的217吉瓦攀升至去年的578吉瓦。 根据美国中央情报局(CIA)的《世界概况》(World Factbook)，这是俄罗斯2015年总发电量的两倍多。 今年化石燃料大受打击的同时，美国和中国，以太阳能和风能为首的可再生能源已占新产能的近90％。 根据国际能源机构(IEA)的数据显示，今年新的可再生能源发电量将达到创纪录的200吉瓦。 IEA预测，2025年可再生能源将超过煤炭，成为电的最大来源。 Berghmans表示，在危机期间，我们并没有看到可再生电力的发展有多少减弱，这可能是由于成本下降，这使其具有竞争力，但也因为公众的支持得到了维持。 这种支持在某些国家甚至得到了加强，因为一些国家推出了支持他们本国经济的计划，其中包括支持向清洁能源过渡的措施。 石油面临威胁-根据英国石油巨头英国石油公司(BP)的一项研究，在全球能源组合中，排放CO2的化石燃料继续占大多数，石油位居榜首，占33%的份额。 石油及其衍生的燃料继续在运输领域发挥关键作用，并且对于工业用途（例如塑料制造）至关重要。 然而，各国政府为减缓冠状病毒传播而实施的限制措施严重打击了运输行业，航空旅行几乎陷入停顿。 这意味着对燃料的需求大幅下降，IEA预计今年的原油需求将下降近9%。 价格也受到重创，其中一项主要合约曾一度跌破零，不过此后已恢复到疫情前的水平，预计明年需求将随全球经济一起反弹。 人们对中期石油前景持不同看法。 一些专家认为，石油需求已经达到峰值，而欧佩克成员国则认为，新兴国家的需求继续上升。 Berghmans表示，我们正处于一个转折点，我们预计未来十年交通运输部门将发生重大变化。 随着电池价格的下降和续航里程的提高，电动汽车预计最终将在大众市场取得突破，而一些国家更严格的污染监管规定将迫使转向使用电动汽车。 但根据IEA的数据显示，去年电动汽车的销量仅占总销量的2.6%，占上路车辆总数的1%，因此还有很多问题需要解决。 煤炭和天然气的命运各不相同——尽管煤炭会对空气质量和气候变化产生有害影响，但它仍是世界上第二大使用燃料，因为它在发电方面仍然很重要。 但其正在走下坡路。国际能源署预计，今年的煤炭使用量将因疫情下降7%，而且永远不会恢复到去年的水平。 天然气(其二氧化碳排放量低于石油)在中期内可能会出现小幅增长，特别是在中国和印度，天然气可以用来取代燃煤电厂。 随着今年需求的下降，国际能源署预计2019-2025年期间的平均年增长率为1.5%。 郝芬 译自 能源世界网 原文如下： Fossil fuels still reign, but renewable energy makes inroads Five years after the signing of the Paris Climate Accord fossil fuels still dominate the energy landscape but it is renewables that are enjoying the strongest growth which even the Covid-19 crisis has not dented. - Renewables: wind at their back - "Fossil fuels remain dominant but the dynamic clearly favours renewable electricity," said Nicolas Berghmans at the IDDRI think tank that focuses on sustainable development and international relations. Solar panels have seen spectacular growth in recent years, climbing from 217 gigawatts of installed capacity worldwide in 2015 to 578 gigawatts last year, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency. That is more than double Russia's total electricity production capacity in 2015, accord to the CIA's World Factbook. And while fossil fuels have taken a beating this year, renewables have accounted for nearly 90 percent of new capacity, led by solar and wind power in the United States and China. The new renewable capacity should hit a record of 200 gigawatts this year, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). It forecasts renewables surpassing coal in 2025 to become the top source of electricity production. "We haven't seen much of a tapering off for the development for renewable electricity during the crisis and that may be due to the drop in costs, which make it competitive, but also because public support has been maintained," Berghmans said. That support is even being reinforced in certain countries as countries roll out plans to support their economies that include measures to support a transition to clean energy. - Oil under threat - Fossil fuels, which emit CO2 among other pollutants, continue to account for the majority in the global energy mix, with oil at the top with a 33 percent share, according to a study by British oil major BP. Oil and the fuels derived from it continue to play a key role in the transport sector as well as being essential for industrial uses such as the manufacture of plastic. However the restrictions put in place by governments to slow the spread of the coronavirus hit the transport sector hard, with air travel nearly brought to a halt. That translated into major drop in demand for fuel, with the IEA estimating demand for crude this year will be down nearly 9 percent. Prices also took a major hit, with one major contract briefly falling below zero, although they have since recovered to pre-pandemic levels and demand is expected to rebound along with the global economy next year. Views are divided about the prospects for oil over the medium term. Some experts see demand for oil as having already peaked while OPEC cartel countries see demand continuing to rise thanks to emerging countries. "We're at an inflection point," said Berghmans, as "we can expect major transformations in the transport sector in the coming ten years." Electric vehicles are expected to finally make a breakthrough to the mass market as the price of batteries fall and range improves, with tougher pollution regulations in some countries forcing the shift. But there is a lot of ground to cover as sales of electric vehicles accounted for just 2.6 percent of total sales last year and 1 percent of the overall fleet on the road, according to the IEA. - Divergent destinies for coal, gas most used fuel in the world despite its pernicious effect on air quality and climate change as it remains important in electricity generation. But it is on a downward trajectory. This year the IEA expects coal use will fall by 7 percent due to the pandemic and that it will never regain the level it was at last year. Natural gas, which emits less C02 than oil and especially coal is likely to see moderate growth over the medium term, especially from China and India where it could be used to replace coal power stations. |
