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| 2020-12-24 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价网站12月18日消息 国际能源机构（IEA）在最新的化石燃料报告中称，随着全球重工业摆脱大范围危机，明年煤炭消费将反弹2.6%。 当然，这一预测是基于全球经济明年将开始复苏的假设，这一点还远不能确定。然而，中国和印度的经济复苏在更大程度上确定了两国已经在好转。 IEA在其报告中承认了这一点，指出煤炭消费的反弹将由两个发电厂加上东南亚带动。有趣的是，据IEA称，由于电力需求预期增加，加上天然气价格上涨，欧洲和美国等地的煤炭消费量也可能上升。 这将是这两个地区10年来煤炭消费量首次上升，在太阳能和风能发电的成本竞争力方面，这将凸显雄心与现实之间的鸿沟。 IEA表示，2018年至2020年间的煤炭消费量下降了7%，是自1971年创记录以来的最高水平。仅在这一年，由于新冠疫情，全球煤炭消费量估计下降了5%， 这是自第二次世界大战以来最大的年度降幅，但低于IEA今年早些时候的预测。 展望未来，IEA表示，预计到2025年，煤炭消费将稳定在74亿吨左右。在欧洲和美国，煤炭使用量将继续稳步下降，但这不会对全球消费量产生特别大的影响，因为这两个市场的综合消费量仅占全球总量的十分之一。另一方面，南亚和东南亚的煤炭使用量在未来几年将进一步增加。 王磊 摘译自 今日油价 原文如下： Coal Consumption Set to Jump In 2021 Coal consumption is set for a rebound of 2.6 percent next year as the world’s heavy industry emerges from the pandemic crisis, the International Energy Agency said in its latest report on the fossil fuel. The forecast is, of course, based on the assumption that the global economy will begin to recover next year, which is far from certain. China’s and India’s recovery, however, has a higher degree of certainty—both countries are already on the mend. The IEA acknowledged this in its report, noting the rebound in coal consumption will be led by the two powerhouses plus Southeast Asia. Interestingly enough, coal consumption may also rise in places such as Europe and the United States because of the expected increase in electricity demand coupled with higher natural gas prices, according to the IEA. This would be the first time in a decade that coal consumption in these two regions has risen, and it would highlight the divide between ambitions and reality when it comes to the cost competitiveness of solar and wind power generation. In further coal news, the IEA said that consumption had fallen by as much as 7 percent between 2018 and 2020, the most since records began in 1971. This year alone, thanks to the pandemic, global coal consumption fell by an estimated 5 percent, which was the steepest annual drop since the Second World War but lower than the IEA had projected earlier this year. Going forward, the authority said it expects coal consumption to plateau at around 7.4 billion tons by 2025. In Europe and the U.S. coal use will continue to decline steadily, but this will not have a particularly strong effect on global consumption as these two markets’ combined consumption represents barely a tenth of the world’s total. Coal use in South and Southeast Asia, on the other hand, is set for a further increase in the coming years. |
