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| 2020-12-25 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2020年12月18日奥斯陆报道，挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的分析结果显示，2020年将是21世纪完成油气许可证出售招标轮数最少的一年。 Rystad强调称，今年迄今为止全球只完成了43轮油气许可证出售招标，而今年剩下的上升空间“非常小”。Rystad称，今年年底前可能还有两轮油气许可证出售招标。Rystad警告称，即便如此，2020年全球油气许可证出售招标轮数仍将是本世纪最少的。 Rystad编制的图表显示，2017年、2018年和2019年全球完成的油气许可证出售招标轮数有所增加，去年已完成的油气许可证出售招标达到了98轮。从图中可以看出，2015年和2016年都完成了50轮，其中2014年完成了约80轮，2013年超过了90轮。澳大利亚在2020年的油气许可证出售招标轮数中处于领先地位，迄今已完成了7轮，覆盖不同地区，包括陆上和海上。美国紧随其后，完成了4轮，其中两轮在墨西哥湾，一轮在阿拉斯加州和一轮在波弗特海。 Rystad说，2021年完成油气许可证出售招标轮数将不会有太大增加，Rystad的图表预计明年全球油气许可证出售招标轮数将略高于50轮。Rystad说，明年全球油气许可证出售招标轮数预计将继续由苏里南、圭亚那、美国、挪威、以色列、印度、中国、马来西亚、埃及和阿联酋等国主导。Rystad指出，包括印度尼西亚、缅甸、泰国、阿尔及利亚、坦桑尼亚、赤道几内亚、厄瓜多尔和巴巴多斯在内的其他国家，可能要到明年下半年才会公布新一轮油气许可证出售招标的时间表，因为这些国家都在等待市场对他们招标的兴趣回升。 Rystad高级上游分析师Aatisha Mahajan在一份公司声明中表示，“尽管许多监管部门现在实际上正在指导油气许可证出售招标，但大多数油气许可证出售招标活动仍涉及技术数据审查。” Mahajan在声明中补充道，“今年的招标将受到人员旅行限制以及勘探公司缺乏足够资金的影响。” 12月早些时候，Rystad警告称，尽管未来的石油需求因新冠肺炎疫情大流行和能源转型加速而下降，除非勘探活动“显著”加快，否则世界将出现石油供应不足，无法满足全球到2050年的石油需求。 Rystad高级上游分析师Palzor Shenga在12月9日发布的一份公司声明中表示，“勘探活动的范围必须大大扩大。” 他在声明中补充说，““除非我们看到全球能源结构比当前预期更快的重大转变，或者开发速度比当前标准快得多，否则到2050年，上游参与者为了满足全球石油需求可能不得不将常规油气勘探努力翻一番。” 李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站 原文如下： 2020 Set to be Century's Worst Licensing Year Rystad Energy analysis shows that 2020 is set to have the fewest concluded licensing rounds of the 21st century. Just 43 rounds have been completed so far, Rystad Energy highlighted, adding that “very little” upside potential was left. Results from two more rounds could come by year-end, according to independent energy research and business intelligence company, which warned that even so, the count will still remain the lowest of the century in 2020. Licensing rounds grew in 2017, 2018 and 2019, reaching 98 concluded rounds last year, a chart compiled by Rystad Energy showed. According to the chart, 50 rounds were concluded in both 2015 and 2016, with around 80 concluded in 2014 and more than 90 concluded in 2013. Australia is leading the lease round tally in 2020 with seven concluded rounds, covering different regions, both onshore and offshore. The U.S. follows in second place with four lease rounds concluded, two in the Gulf of Mexico, one in Alaska and one in the Beaufort Sea. The amount of completed licensing rounds is not expected to increase by much in 2021, with Rystad Energy’s chart projecting a count of just over 50. Rystad Energy said it expects next year’s licensing activity to continue to be dominated by countries like Suriname, Guyana, the U.S., Norway, Israel, India, China, Malaysia, Egypt and the UAE. The company noted that other countries - including Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Algeria, Tanzania, Equatorial Guinea, Ecuador and Barbados - may not announce their licensing schedules until the second half of next year as they wait for interest to pick up. “Even though many regulatory authorities are now conducting licensing virtually, most licensing activity still involves technical data review,” Aatisha Mahajan, a senior upstream analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement. “This has been impacted this year by travel restrictions for personnel, and also by a lack of sufficient funds from exploration companies,” Mahajan added in the statement. Earlier this month, Rystad Energy warned that the world is on track to run out of sufficient oil supplies to meet its needs through 2050 - despite lower future demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the accelerating energy transition - unless exploration speeds up “significantly”. “The scope of exploration will have to expand significantly,” Palzor Shenga, a senior upstream analyst at Rystad Energy, said in a company statement posted on December 9. “Unless we see a momentous transition in the global energy mix sooner than currently expected, or a much faster development pace than the current norm, upstream players may have to more than double their conventional exploration efforts in order to meet global oil demand through 2050,” Shenga added in the statement. |
