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| 2020-12-28 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据12月23日Rigzone报道，这是伍德麦肯兹分析师最近在其官网上发表的一篇评论文章指出，强劲的石油需求增长将推高明年的油价，这是该公司对2021年石油和天然气市场做出的几个预测之一。 这一价格预测是由伍德麦肯兹的宏观石油主管安·路易斯·希特尔（Ann Louise Hittle）分析出的。该公司预计，因新冠肺炎疫情造成的停产将在明年一季度开始缓解，预计2021年全球石油需求将同比增长660万桶。 希特尔在一份公司声明中表示:“本季度中国的石油需求已经加强，达到了高于2019年同期的水平。中国石油需求的好转表明，全球石油市场的恢复将很快成为现实，2021年全球石油需求同比将强劲增长。这种趋势将在2021年下半年使供需恢复平衡，并支撑油价。” 伍德麦肯兹的预测内容还包括该公司上游分析主管Fraser McKay的一项预测，他指出，即使油价上涨，上游油气行业仍将再度过一年的“低迷期”。McKay表示:“2021年，上游行业的投资水平将保持在3000亿美元左右。对价格信号的反应将是不对称的，较低的价格意味着产量将快速削减；而在较高的价格情况下，偶然性和弹性将盖过石油生产商利用服务行业成本最低点获利的热情。” McKay补充道：“石油项目将越来越多地根据其环境、社会和公司管理水平来展开评判。我们预计，2021年将批准20个左右的大型项目，较2020年的多10个，但这仅仅是疫情爆发前水平的一半。” 伍德麦肯兹负责企业研究的高级副总裁汤姆•埃拉科特(Tom Ellacott)预计，石油和天然气公司向低碳能源领域的多元化发展进程将会加快，该公司负责企业研究的副总裁瓦伦蒂娜•克雷茨施马尔(Valentina Kretzschmar)预计，将会有更多公司设定减排目标。 伍德麦肯兹负责上游研究的副总裁罗伯特•克拉克(Robert Clarke)表示，美国致密油领域也将达成一项“重磅”交易。克拉克在一份公司声明中称:"资产大规模整合所需的所有要素都已到位。拥有强大财务实力的公司可以利用其有利的资金成本，通过交易来降低维护成本。与此同时，引入多元化的并购可以为致密油业务提供急需的风险缓解方案。” 克拉克补充道：“因此，我们认为2021年将会看到一项重磅交易，并将对致密油产生冲击。如果原油市场不再动荡，两家大公司将走到一起，甚至可能出现三家大公司的合并。” 王佳晶 摘译自 Rigzone 原文如下： Oil Market Predictions for 2021 Strong oil demand growth will lift prices next year. That’s one of several oil and gas market predictions for 2021 made by Wood Mackenzie analysts, which were released in an opinion piece posted on the company’s website recently. The price prediction, which was made by Wood Mackenzie’s head of macro oils, Ann-Louise Hittle, outlined that Wood Mackenzie expects coronavirus related shutdowns to start easing in the first quarter of next year and that the company is forecasting a world oil demand increase of 6.6 million barrels per day, year on year, in 2021. “Already, China has seen oil demand strengthen this quarter to levels higher than the same period of 2019,” Hittle said in a company statement. “The turnaround in China’s oil demand points to the first sign of what will soon be a reality; brisk global year-on-year demand growth in 2021. That trend is going to tighten the supply and demand balance by the second half of 2021 and support oil prices,” Hittle added. Wood Mackenzie’s prediction list also included a projection from the company’s head of upstream analysis, Fraser McKay, who noted that the upstream oil and gas sector will spend another year “in the doldrums”, even as prices rise. “Investment levels in the upstream sector will stay flat at about $300 billion in 2021,” McKay stated. “Reactions to price signals will be asymmetric; low prices mean rapid cuts, but at higher prices contingency and resilience will outweigh enthusiasm to take advantage of a nadir in service sector costs,” he added. “Projects will increasingly be judged on their environmental, social and corporate governance credentials. We expect 20 or so big projects to be sanctioned in 2021, up from just over 10 in 2020, but just half the prevailing pre-pandemic trend,” McKay continued. Tom Ellacott, Wood Mackenzie’s senior vice-president of corporate research, predicted that oil and gas companies’ diversification into low-carbon energy will accelerate, and Valentina Kretzschmar, the company’s vice-president of corporate research, forecasted that more companies will set goals for cutting emissions. Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of upstream research, Robert Clarke, said there will also be a “blockbuster” deal in U.S. tight oil. “All the pieces required for mega-consolidation are in place,” Clarke said in a company statement. “Financially strong companies can exploit their advantageous cost of capital. Smart deals can lower maintenance capital requirements. And mergers that introduce diversification offer much-needed risk-mitigation to tight oil businesses,” he added. “As a result, we think we will see a blockbuster deal next year that will send shockwaves through tight oil. Absent a very volatile crude market, two big names will get together. Maybe even three, as some of the recent deal filings have indicated,” Clarke continued. “We don’t think it goes as far as the Permian eventually only having five meaningful operators, as some have suggested. But we are confident a storied name (or three) will be retired in 2021,” the Wood Mackenzie representative went on to state. |
