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| 2020-12-28 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据12月23日Trade Arabia消息：美国银行在一份报告中表示，尽管石油行业正朝着乐观的方向发展，但随着全球石油需求到2023年将达到疫情前水平，可能还需要进一步关闭更多炼油厂。 根据美国银行证券最新发布的《全球能源周报》，炼油厂的关闭横跨美国、西北欧和亚太地区，总产能接近每天100万桶。 与此同时，一些陷入困境的炼油厂(尤其是亚太地区的炼油厂)已开始进行评估，以确定关闭或改作用途是否比继续运营更好。 除了关闭工厂之外，该行业还闲置产能并削减活跃炼油厂产量，希望随着利润率的提高恢复运营。据估计，今年迄今全球停运量为1600万桶/天，同比增长近800万桶/天，这有助于将产品库存从创纪录水平拉低。然而，多数地区的利润率仅温和回升，受到需求反弹脆弱和产能不足的限制。 在欧洲以及加州和纽约等州流动性趋势正在减弱，表明汽油需求疲软。此外，最近汽油库存也上升到了五年来的最高水平。这些因素可能会导致未来几周汽油行情走弱。 “夏季汽油上涨近2美元/桶，但仍低于预期。尽管我们对明年汽油价格与远期曲线的走势仍持乐观态度，但上行空间可能有限，因为未充分利用的炼油产能数量可能会对利润率上升做出反应。”报告称。 冯娟 摘译自 Trade Arabia 原文如下： Oil demand to reach pre-Covid levels by 2023: BofA While the oil industry is moving in the right direction with a number of refinery closures announced since October, more closures are likely needed, as the global oil demand to reach pre-Covid-19 levels by 2023, said the Bank of America (BofA) in a new report. Refinery closures span the US, Northwest Europe, and the Asia Pacific region and totalling nearly 1 million barrels per day (b/d) of capacity, according to the latest Global Energy Weekly from BofA Securities. Meanwhile, a handful of struggling refineries, especially in the Asia Pacific region, have undertaken reviews to determine whether closing or repurposing are better options than continuing refinery operations. In addition to closing plants, the industry idled capacity and cut runs at active refineries, hoping to restore operations as margins improve. Platts estimates 16 million b/d of outages globally YTD, up nearly 8 million b/d year-on-year, which helped draw product stocks down from record levels. Yet, margins across most regions recovered only modestly, limited by a fragile demand rebound and capacity at the ready. “Gasoline cracks rallied to two month highs this week, but winter headwinds could push cracks lower once again,” the report said, adding that rising Covid-19 cases across the Northern Hemisphere have triggered lockdowns and more restrictive measures seem likely. Mobility trends are weakening in Europe and states like California and New York, pointing to soft gasoline demand this holiday season. Furthermore, gasoline inventories have also risen to new five year seasonal highs recently. These factors could set winter gasoline cracks up for weakness in the coming weeks. “Summer grade gasoline cracks have rallied nearly $2 per barrel recently but remain just shy of our 2Q21 forecasts. While we remain constructive on gasoline cracks versus the forward curve for next summer, upside is likely limited due to the amount of underutilized refining capacity that could respond to higher margins,” the report said. |
