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| 2020-12-30 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据全球能源新闻网12月26日报道，今年我们看到了能源市场前所未有的历史性动荡。新冠疫情对正常生活的破坏严重影响了数百万人的健康和福祉。国际能源署（IEA）的预测如下： 今年，石油日需求将同比下降880万桶，较我们之前的报告略微下调5万桶。我们将2021年的日需求预测下调了17万桶。这主要是由于航空燃料/煤油需求再次下降，这将占2021年与2019年相比总体310万桶/天消费量缺口的80%左右。到2021年，对汽油和柴油的需求预计将恢复到2019年水平的97-99％。 由于美国从飓风停工中恢复，11月全球石油供应增加150万桶/天，至9270万桶 / 天。在OPEC+在1月份将其配额增加50万桶/ 天之前，12月的产量可能会再次增加。OPEC+在短期内主导全球增长，几乎第四季度所有的增长，明年第一季度的80%。整个2021年，OPEC+以外的非欧佩克生产国在今年下降130万桶/ 天之后，预计日产量将增加40万桶。 全球炼油厂产量在10月份下降了近100万桶/天，主要原因是维修和飓风停运。北半球冬季成品油需求的季节性放缓，加上原油市场趋紧，将在短期内给炼油商带来挑战。预计10月份产品库存量将达到2020年的峰值，并且产能预计将放缓，直到明年第二季度需求复苏的下一阶段。 10月份经合组织工业库存下降5530万桶(即178万桶/天)至31.29亿桶，比5年平均水平高出1.834亿桶。观察到的全球储量下降了410万桶/天。我们的分析表明，与2019年12月相比，2021年初全球原油市场将有6.25亿桶库存过剩。如果我们假设中国可以在2021年消化中和过剩量，那么其他区域的市场将陆续消化剩下的1.83亿桶，到7月，与2019年底相比，市场库存过剩将会转为赤字。 基于更强劲的亚洲需求和有效的欧佩克+供应管理，油价从期货溢价快速平稳地转变为现货溢价。布伦特原油期货11月上涨2.46美元/桶，至43.98美元/桶，12月11日收于49.97美元/桶。原油现货价格对期货的折扣在11月底和12月初有所改善。11月，由于亚洲购买力增加，货运成本受益于5月份以来油轮活动量的首次增长。 IEA表示，如今已接近2020年底，布伦特原油期货价格最近自3月初以来首次突破50美元/桶。事实上，未来12个月，期货市场已进入浅现货溢价状态。另一方面，原油现货价格直到最近才接近期货价格，这凸显了新冠疫情导致石油需求和市场稳定的持续不确定性。 郝芬 译自 全球能源新闻网 原文如下： 2020 – GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 8.8 MILLION BARRELS BELOW THE 2019 LEVELS In 2020, we have seen unprecedented and historic turbulence in energy markets. The disruption to normal life caused by the pandemic has had a serious impact on the health and welfare of millions of people. The International Energy Administrations (IEA) forecasts are as follows: Oil demand will fall by 8.8 mb/d y-o-y in 2020, a modest 50 kb/d downward revision from our previous Report. Our 2021 demand forecast was revised down by 170 kb/d. This is mainly because of another downgrade for jet fuel/kerosene demand, which will account for around 80% of the overall 3.1 mb/d shortfall in consumption in 2021 versus 2019. In 2021, demand for both gasoline and diesel is projected to return to 97-99% of their 2019 levels. Global oil supply rose 1.5 mb/d in November to 92.7 mb/d as the US recovered from hurricane shut-ins. In December, production may rise again ahead of OPEC+ increasing its quota by 0.5 mb/d in January. OPEC+ dominates global growth in the near term, with virtually all the 4Q20 gains and 80% in 1Q21. For 2021 as a whole, non-OPEC producers outside OPEC+ are expected to increase output by 400 kb/d after a fall of 1.3 mb/d in 2020. Global refinery throughputs fell almost 1 mb/d in October mainly due to maintenance and hurricane shutdowns. The seasonal slowdown of refined product demand in the northern hemisphere winter combined with tighter crude oil markets will result in a challenging environment for refiners in the short-term. Estimated product stock draws reached their 2020 peak in October and are expected to slow until the next leg of the demand recovery in 2Q21. OECD industry stocks fell in October by 55.3 mb (1.78 mb/d) to 3 129 mb, and were 183.4 mb above the five-year average. Observed global stocks fell by 4.1 mb/d. Our analysis suggests that the global crude market will have a stock surplus of 625 mb at the start of 2021 versus December 2019. If we assume that Chinese balances are neutral in 2021, the market will absorb the 183 mb located elsewhere and in July it will move into deficit versus end-2019. Oil prices have moved rapidly and smoothly from contango to backwardation, based on stronger Asian demand and effective OPEC+ supply management. ICE Brent futures rose $2.46/bbl in November to $43.98/bbl and closed at $49.97/bbl on 11 December. Physical crude price discounts to futures improved in late November and early December. In November, freight costs benefited from a rise of tanker activity for the first time in since May, due to stronger Asian buying. The IEA said: “We are close to the end of 2020 and Brent futures prices have recently moved above $50/bbl for the first time since early March. Indeed, futures markets have moved into a shallow backwardation looking twelve months ahead. On the other hand, physical barrels have only recently traded close to futures prices, underlining the continued uncertainty that Covid-19 is causing oil demand and market stability.” |
