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| 2020-12-31 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2020年12月26日报道，全球强劲的石油需求增长将推高2021年的原油价格。 这是全球领先的商业情报公司伍德麦肯兹（Wood Mackenzie/WM）分析师们最近在他们公司网站上发表的一篇观点文章中对2021年全球油气市场前景作出的预测之一。 这个由WM宏观油品部门主管安-路易斯·希特尔作出的价格预测预计与冠状病毒相关的封锁将在2021年第一季度开始放松, WM预测2021年全球石油需求同比将日增660万桶。 希特尔在一份公司声明中表示，“中国2020年第4季度的石油需求已经增强，达到了高于2019年同期的水平。” 希特尔说，“中国石油需求的转变预示着一个即将成为现实的第一个迹象：2021年全球石油需求同比将强劲增长。到2021年下半年，这一增长趋势将收紧供需平衡，并支撑油价。” WM的预测名单还包括该公司上游分析主管弗雷泽?麦凯的一项预测，他指出，2021年即使油价上涨，上游油气行业还将面临“毫无生气的”一年。 麦凯表示，“2021年全球上游领域的投资水平将保持在大约3000亿美元。” 麦凯补充说，“人们将越来越多地根据项目在环境、社会和公司治理方面的资质来判断项目。我们预计2021年全球将批准20个左右的大型项目，超过2020年批准的10个，但这个批准数只是疫情前批准数的一半。” WM负责企业研究的高级副总裁汤姆?埃拉科特预计，2021年全球油气公司向低碳能源领域的多元化发展将加速。 WM负责企业研究的副总裁瓦伦蒂娜?克雷茨施马预计，2021年更多的油气公司将设定减排目标。 WM上游研究副总裁罗伯特·克拉尔克表示，2021年美国致密油领域也将有一笔“轰动的”交易。 克拉尔克在一份公司声明中称，“大规模整合所需的所有要素都已到位。” 他说，“财务雄厚的公司能够利用他们优越的资本成本。明智的交易能够降低维护资本的要求。而引入多元化的并购则为致密油企业提供急需的风险缓解。” 克拉尔克继续说，“因此，我们认为，2021年我们将看到一笔轰动的交易，这将在致密油行业产生冲击波。如果2021年原油市场不剧烈波动，2个大公司，也许甚至3个大公司将会走到一起，就像最近一些交易文件显示的那样。” WM的分析师们继续说，“我们不认为二叠纪盆地最终会像一些人所说的那样，只有5家有意义的运营商。但我们确信会有1个或3个众所周知的公司在2021年退出。” 李峻 编译自 油价网 原文如下： Oil Market Predictions for 2021 Strong oil demand growth will lift prices next year. That’s one of several oil and gas market predictions for 2021 made by Wood Mackenzie analysts, which were released in an opinion piece posted on the company’s website recently. The price prediction, which was made by Wood Mackenzie’s head of macro oils, Ann-Louise Hittle, outlined that Wood Mackenzie expects coronavirus related shutdowns to start easing in the first quarter of next year and that the company is forecasting a world oil demand increase of 6.6 million barrels per day, year on year, in 2021. “Already, China has seen oil demand strengthen this quarter to levels higher than the same period of 2019,” Hittle said in a company statement. “The turnaround in China’s oil demand points to the first sign of what will soon be a reality; brisk global year-on-year demand growth in 2021. That trend is going to tighten the supply and demand balance by the second half of 2021 and support oil prices,” Hittle added. Wood Mackenzie’s prediction list also included a projection from the company’s head of upstream analysis, Fraser McKay, who noted that the upstream oil and gas sector will spend another year “in the doldrums”, even as prices rise. “Investment levels in the upstream sector will stay flat at about $300 billion in 2021,” McKay stated. “Projects will increasingly be judged on their environmental, social and corporate governance credentials. We expect 20 or so big projects to be sanctioned in 2021, up from just over 10 in 2020, but just half the prevailing pre-pandemic trend,” McKay added. Tom Ellacott, Wood Mackenzie’s senior vice-president of corporate research, predicted that oil and gas companies’ diversification into low-carbon energy will accelerate, and Valentina Kretzschmar, the company’s vice-president of corporate research, forecasted that more companies will set goals for cutting emissions. Wood Mackenzie’s vice president of upstream research, Robert Clarke, said there will also be a “blockbuster” deal in U.S. tight oil. “All the pieces required for mega-consolidation are in place,” Clarke said in a company statement. “Financially strong companies can exploit their advantageous cost of capital. Smart deals can lower maintenance capital requirements. And mergers that introduce diversification offer much-needed risk-mitigation to tight oil businesses,” he added. “As a result, we think we will see a blockbuster deal next year that will send shockwaves through tight oil. Absent a very volatile crude market, two big names will get together. Maybe even three, as some of the recent deal filings have indicated,” Clarke continued. “We don’t think it goes as far as the Permian eventually only having five meaningful operators, as some have suggested. But we are confident a storied name (or three) will be retired in 2021,” the Wood Mackenzie representative went on to state. |
