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| 2020-12-31 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据油田技术12月29日消息称，Covid-19大流行破坏了2021年的原油和凝析油需求，造成大量的供应过剩，库存过多，导致生产商削减产量以将价格保持在一定程度的盈利水平。然而，雷斯塔能源的最新收支平衡显示，由于月度供应短缺可能达到多年来的最高水平，因此2021年可能会为生产商提供新的机遇。 尽管在2021年第一季度，原油和凝析油的供应仍将超过需求，但雷斯塔能源预计疫苗接种活动将有助于未来的快速复苏。月度供应缺口将从5月开始，在8月触及约340万桶/日的高位。由由于赤字在这一年中持续不断，8月份的高点即使不会在年底前超过，也可能再次出现。 进入2021年，雷斯塔能源预计1月份市场将基本平衡，供需徘徊在7770万桶/天至7780万桶/天之间。全球封锁的影响在2月和3月将更加明显，因为需求将不会跟随供应增长，将分别维持在7790万桶/日和7740万桶/日，造成2月和3月每日50万桶和140万桶的过剩。4月也将出现少量盈余，但不久之后市场将恢复。 需要强调的是，雷斯塔当前的供应基础情况是假定最新的欧佩克+协议条款保持不变，该集团的产量在1月份后保持不变。雷斯塔还假设欧佩克+将会在未来保持良好的一致性，同时美国供应有限以及伊朗只会在2022年恢复供应。 雷斯塔能源公司石油市场主管Bjornar Tonhaugen说：“我们在美国的监测人员开始指出，活动越来越活跃。正如我们之前警告客户的那样，页岩油是一个你可以减速生产但无法停止生产的怪物。此外，预计明年地缘政治领域将出现变化之风。” 总是存在偏离预期的空间，尤其是在政策可能会变化的多变环境中。与雷斯塔的基本情况相比，即将到来的赤字将为欧佩克+在2021年5月增加产量创造额外的空间，这反过来又会影响月度平衡。与往常一样，欧佩克+产量将不得不与美国页岩油争夺市场份额，而美国页岩油目前正随着活动的增加而出现转机。 韩婷 摘译自 油田技术 原文如下： Rystad Energy: 2021 could offer a window of opportunity for producers The Covid-19 pandemic has devasted crude and condensate demand in 2021, creating massive supply surpluses and filling up inventories, causing producers to slash their output in order to keep prices at somewhat profitable levels. Rystad Energy’s latest balances, however, show that 2021 could offer producers a window of opportunity, as monthly supply deficits may reach their highest level in years. Although crude and condensate supply will still exceed demand in 1Q21, Rystad Energy expects that vaccination campaigns will help bring a rapid recovery going forward. Monthly supply deficits will start from May, reaching a high of around 3.4 million bpd in August. As deficits continue uninterrupted through the year, August’s high could be repeated, if not exceeded by year-end. Entering 2021, Rystad Energy expects a largely balanced market in January, with supply and demand hovering between 77.7 and 77.8 million bpd. The effect of global lockdowns will be felt even more in February and March as demand will not follow the growing supply and will stay limited at 77.9 million bpd and 77.4 million bpd respectively, creating a surplus of 0.5 million bpd in February and 1.4 million bpd in March. A minor surplus will also be recorded in April but the market will recovery shortly after. It is important to highlight that Rystad's current supply base case assumes the terms of the latest OPEC+ agreement stay unchanged and the group’s production remains flat after January. Rystad also assumes a stellar compliance within OPEC+ going forward, as well as limited upside to US supply and Iran coming back only in 2022. “Our monitors in the US are starting to point out at stronger activity. As we have warned our clients before, shale is a monster than you can slowdown, but you can’t kill. In addition, there are winds of change forecasted in the geopolitical realm next year,“ said Bjornar Tonhaugen, Head of Oil Markets at Rystad Energy. There is always room for deviation from projections, especially in such a volatile environment as policies can change. The coming deficits will create extra room for OPEC+ to hike production from May 2021 versus Rystad's base case, which in turn can affect monthly balances. OPEC+ output, as usual, will have to fight for market share with US shale, which is currently turning a corner with increased activity. |
