机构：全球石油需求到2022年才能完全恢复

    中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2020年12月28日报道，全球著名商业咨询服务多元化供应商IHS Markit副董事长丹尼尔•耶金12月28日在接受阿拉伯电视台英语频道视频采访时表示，全球石油需求可能还需要一年左右的时间，即到2021年末或2022年初，才能恢复到新冠肺炎疫情大流行前的水平。

    耶金对全球石油需求的预期与国际能源署(IEA)和欧佩克的预测基本一致，后面两家机构预计，尽管与2020年的低迷相比预计会有所上升，但2021年全球的年度石油需求不会回到新冠肺炎爆发前的水平。

    IEA在12月早些时候公布的月度石油市场报告中称，2021年全球石油需求比疫情大流行前每日310万桶的缺口中，持续低迷的航空燃料需求将占80%。欧佩克还在12月的月度石油市场报告中下调了2020年和2021年的全球石油需求预测，预计2021年的全球石油日需求为9589万桶，比11月的预测9630万桶减少41万桶。

    IHS Markit的耶金认为，石油市场的最大破坏并不会提前或推迟全球石油需求峰值的到来。

    耶金对阿拉伯电视台英语频道记者表示，“不管怎么说，这对全球石油需求峰值不会有太大影响，我仍然认为全球石油需求峰值将在2030年前后出现。”

    根据IHS Markit公布的统计数据，在2021年底前，美国页岩油日产量在开始上升前将相对不变地保持在1100万桶左右，但其增长速度将会更加缓慢。

    李峻 编译自 油价网

    原文如下：

    IHS Markit: Oil Demand Won't Fully Recover Until 2022

    Global oil demand will likely take another year or so to return to pre-pandemic levels—by late 2021 or early 2022, energy expert and IHS Markit vice chairman Daniel Yergin told Al Arabiya English in a video interview on Monday.

    Yergin’s expectations for oil demand are roughly in line with the forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC, which don’t expect annual oil demand to return to the pre-COVID levels next year, despite the projected rise compared to this year’s slump.

    Continued low demand for jet fuel will account for 80 percent of next year’s 3.1-million-bpd gap in oil demand compared to pre-pandemic levels, the IEA said in its monthly Oil Market Report earlier this month. OPEC also revised down its oil demand projections for this year and next in its Monthly Oil Market Report for December, expecting 2021 oil demand at 95.89 million bpd, down 410,000 bpd from its projection of 96.3 million bpd from November.

    IHS Markit’s Yergin doesn’t see the biggest disruption on the oil market as either bringing forward or delaying peak oil demand.

    “At the end of the day, it won’t have much impact on peak oil demand, which I still think will be around 2030 or so,” Yergin told Al Arabiya English.

    According to IHS Markit, shale production will stay relatively unchanged at around 11 million bpd until late 2021, before it starts rising, but it will increase at a much more moderate pace.