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| 2021-01-05 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS--MRC网站12月30日莫斯科报道，据路透社表示，尽管2020年年底全球油价约为每桶51美元，接近2015-2017年的平均水平，但这掩盖了这一年的波动。 2020年4月，受新冠疫情以及石油巨头沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯之间的价格战冲击，美国原油价格大幅下跌跌至负值，布伦特原油价格跌破每桶20美元。因疫情破坏了世界各地的燃料需求，2020年剩余时间用于从这一下降中恢复。虽然短期内美国石油期货跌破负每桶40美元的可能性不太可能在2021年重演，但新的封锁和分阶段推出疫苗将抑制明年乃至以后的需求。 研究公司Third Bridge的工业、材料和能源行业全球主管彼得•麦克纳利(Peter McNally)表示，我们真的没有看到过这样的情况——在金融危机期间没有，在9/11之后也没有。对需求的影响是明显和迅速的。 由于各国寻求限制排放以减缓气候变化，未来几年的化石燃料需求可能依然疲软，即使在疫情爆发后也是如此。英国石油公司(BP Plc)和道达尔(Total SE)等主要石油公司发布的预测包括了全球石油需求可能在2019年达到峰值的情况。 据美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)表示，2020年世界石油和液体燃料产量从2019年的1.0061亿桶/天下降至9425万桶/天，预计2021年产量将仅恢复至9742万桶/天。 郝芬 译自 ICIS-MRC 原文如下： A historic oil price collapse, with worries headed into 2021 Even as global prices end the year at about USD51 a barrel, near the average for 2015-2017, it masks a year of volatility, said Reuters. In April 2020, U.S. crude plunged deep into negative territory and Brent dropped below USD20 per barrel, slammed by the COVID-19 pandemic and a price war between oil giants Saudi Arabia and Russia. The remainder of 2020 was spent recovering from that drop as the pandemic destroyed fuel demand around the world. While the short-lived decline of U.S. oil futures below negative-USD40 a barrel is not likely to be repeated in 2021, new lockdowns and a phased rollout of vaccines to treat the virus will restrain demand next year, and perhaps beyond. "We really haven't seen anything like this - not in the financial crisis, not after 9/11," said Peter McNally, global sector lead for industrials, materials and energy at research firm Third Bridge. "The impact on demand was remarkable and swift." Fossil-fuel demand in coming years could remain softer even after the pandemic as countries seek to limit emissions to slow climate change. Major oil companies, such as BP Plc and Total SE, published forecasts that include scenarios where global oil demand may have peaked in 2019. World oil and liquid fuels production fell in 2020 to 94.25 million barrels per day (bpd) from 100.61 million bpd in 2019, and output is expected to recover only to 97.42 million bpd next year, the Energy Information Administration said. |
