巴西石油行业或将出现繁荣景象

    中国石化新闻网讯 据12月30日RT报道，尽管新冠肺炎疫情对整个油气行业产生了巨大冲击，低硫原油混合物的需求不断增长，巴西的石油市场出现繁荣景象，业务将爆炸式增长。

    当前的疫情局势给全球能源需求前景带来了相当大的不确定性。持续的全球原油供应过剩以及石油需求峰值可能会比预期提前出现的说法，也对能源价格构成了压力，但这些并没有阻碍巴西大规模的石油繁荣的复苏。

    亚洲对轻质原油的需求不断增长，加上巴西国内对汽油的需求强于预期，都在提振巴西的石油工业。2020年1月1日推出的IMO2020大大限制了海洋燃料的硫含量，引发了中国对轻质原油的需求，这是巴西石油繁荣的一个重要驱动力。2020年11月，世界第二大经济体中国，平均每天进口超过1100万桶原油，较前一个月增长10.1%，不过，仍比去年同期下降了近1%。巴西已成为亚洲炼油商的主要原油供应国。截至2020年10月底，拉丁美洲最大的石油生产国已成为中国的第三大石油供应国。这是因为含硫量较低的Buzios和Lula原油的迅速普及，这两种原油相对较便宜，也更容易提炼成符合IMO2020标准的燃料。IMO2020的推出对低硫中轻质原油等级的需求和定价产生了显著影响，预计今年海运燃料将比2019年增长近1%，而2019年海运燃料市场规模为1490亿美元，占全球原油消费量的5%左右。

    值得一提的是，海运贸易约占世界贸易总量的90%，凸显了海运贸易对全球经济的重要性。这就解释了为什么IMO2020对轻质低硫燃料的需求有如此显著的影响，并导致巴西的Buzios和Lula等级原油的售价高于国际布伦特基准价格。

    根据今日油价的数据显示，Lula的交易价格比布伦特原油每桶溢价5%，即2.78美元。巴西国家石油公司表示，Buzios在亚洲的售价也高于布伦特原油。

    由于对巴西盐下油田生产的低硫原油的需求日益增长，巴西国家石油公司(Petrobras)正集中精力开发其盐下业务。巴西国家石油公司在2021年至2025年期间的勘探和生产活动预算为465亿美元。被批准开发的上游项目必须达到每桶35美元或更低的盈亏平衡价格。巴西国家石油公司将70%的预算用于其盐下油田，尤其是Buzios油田，该油田将占该公司总预算的36%。这家国有石油公司计划在2022年至2025年期间在Buzios油田部署4艘新的浮式生产储油船，并将生产井数量增加到29口。巴国油最近报告称，已经完成了新油井的钻探工作，并发现了“质量上乘的石油”。这将给该公司和巴西的盐下石油生产带来实实在在的提升。这家综合能源巨头也在竞相开发其全资拥有的Itapu油田，预计该油田明年将产出第一批石油，这比原计划提前了三年。该油田将泵送与Buzios等级相似的原油，这意味着该油田生产的石油也将以高于布伦特的价格出售。

    Buzios和Lula油田的特点是较低的盈亏平衡价格，加上其生产的石油售价高于布伦特原油，这提高了它们的盈利能力。据巴国家油称，这两个油田的原油开采价格低于每桶35美元。鉴于布伦特原油价格为每桶51美元，Lula原油价格为每桶53美元，巴西国家石油公司有相当大的动力来提高这些油田的产量。除了亚洲炼油商对巴西盐下原油的强劲需求外，强于预期的国内燃料需求也推动了这个拉美国家大规模的海上石油繁荣发展。据彭博社报道，拉丁美洲最大经济体的燃料消耗量最近飙升，超过了疫情爆发前的水平，并将在2021年继续加强。由于全球大力减少硫排放，对巴西国家石油公司低硫燃料的需求依然坚挺，并将继续增长。

    2020年10月，巴西盐下石油产量同比增长6%，平均日产量超过250万桶。海上盐下石油产量占巴西石油总产量的85.5%，而2019年同期这一比例为81%。不过，因为巴西国家石油公司在内的能源巨头削减开支，以及因疫情而关闭不经济的油井，导致巴西10月份的油气产量与去年同期相比下降了2.6%，平均不到370万桶油当量。

    值得一提的是，尽管新冠肺炎疫情已经打击了巴西石油业，导致产量下降，因为石油生产商大量削减预算和关闭油井，但似乎没有造成实质性的长期损害。有迹象表明，在亚洲炼油商需求的推动下，盐下石油产量将继续以稳健的速度增长。随着疫苗的推出、疫情的缓解以及全球经济恢复增长，对原油和成品油的需求将进一步增强。据美国能源信息署(EIA)估计，2021年全球石油消费量将同比增长6%，达到每日9800万桶。受到这些因素的影响，巴西石油产量将大幅增长，该公司10月份的石油产量占该国石油产量的73%，其目标是到2025年实现石油日产量270万桶。

    王佳晶 摘译自 RT

    原文如下：

    Can anything stop Brazil’s massive oil boom?

    Despite Covid-19’s impact on the industry as a whole, Brazil’s oil boom has exploded thanks to growing Asian demand for its sweet crude blend.

    The Covid-19 pandemic had a sharp impact on oil prices, creating considerable uncertainty over the outlook for energy demand around the globe. The ongoing global crude oil supply glut and claims that peak oil demand could occur sooner than anticipated are also weighing on energy prices. Those headwinds have done little to impede Brazil’s massive oil boom.

    Growing demand for lighter sweeter crude oil grades from Asia, coupled with stronger than expected domestic demand for gasoline are buoying Brazil’s oil industry. China’s insatiable demand for lighter sweeter crude oil grades, sparked by the introduction of IMO2020 on 1 January 2020 which significantly limits the sulfur content of maritime fuels, is an important driver of Brazil’s offshore oil boom. For November 2020, China, the world’s second-largest economy, imported on average just over 11 million barrels of crude oil daily, representing a 10.1 percent increase over the previous month, although it was still almost one percent lower than a year earlier. Brazil has become a key supplier of crude oil for Asian refiners. By the end of October 2020, Latin America’s largest oil producer had become the third-largest supplier of petroleum to China. This was because of the rapidly growing popularity of its sweet medium grade Búzios and Lula crudes, which because of their low sulfur content are cheaper and easier to refine into IMO2020 compliant fuels. The introduction of IMO2020 is having a notable effect on demand and pricing for low sulfur content medium and light crude oil grades, with maritime fuel expected to grow by almost one percent this year from 2019 when it was a $149 billion market that accounted for around five percent of crude oil consumed globally. Seaborne trade accounts for around 90 percent of total world trade volumes, highlighting its importance to the functioning of the global economy. This explains why IMO2020 had such a significant effect on demand for sweeter crude oil varieties and was responsible for causing Brazil’s Búzios and Lula grades to sell at a premium to the international Brent benchmark price.

    According to Oilprice.com data Lula is trading at a 5 percent or $2.78 per barrel premium to Brent. While prices are not readily available for Búzios, according to Petrobras it sells at a premium to Brent in Asia.

    Growing demand for the sweet crude oil grades produced by Brazil’s pre-salt oilfields sees Petrobras focused on developing its pre-salt operations. Brazil’s national oil company has budgeted capital spending for exploration and production activities of $46.5 billion from 2021 to 2025. Those upstream projects being approved for development must have a breakeven price of $35 per Brent or less. Petrobras has earmarked 70 percent of that budget for its pre-salt oilfields, notably Búzios where 36 percent of the total amount will be spent. The premium price paid for Búzios crude oil is a key reason for Petrobras’ focus on expanding operations at the deep-water Búzios oilfield. The state-controlled oil company plans to deploy four new FPSOs in Búzios between 2022 and 2025 as well as boost the number of producing wells to 29. Petrobras recently reported it had completed the drilling of a new well at the Búzios field where it found what it described as "oil of excellent quality.” That will give Petrobras’ and Brazil’s pre-salt oil production a solid lift. The integrated energy major is also racing ahead with developing its wholly-owned Itapu field which is expected to produce first oil next year, three years earlier than originally planned. That oilfield will pump crude oil of a similar grade to Búzios, meaning it should also sell for a premium to Brent.

    The Lula and Búzios fields feature low breakeven prices which, along with the oil produced trading at a premium to Brent, enhances their profitability. According to Petrobras, the ultra-deepwater Búzios and Lula fields are pumping crude oil with a breakeven price of less than $35 per barrel. With Brent trading at $51 per barrel and Lula selling for $53 a barrel, there is considerable incentive for Petrobras to bolster production from those fields. Aside from strong demand from Asia refiners for Brazil’s pre-salt crude oil, stronger than expected domestic fuel demand is also driving the Latin American country’s massive offshore oil boom. According to Bloomberg fuel consumption in Latin America’s largest economy recently surged past pre-pandemic levels and will continue to strengthen going into 2021. Demand for Petrobras’ low sulfur content fuel is firm and will grow because of the global push to significantly reduce sulfur emissions.

    These developments were responsible for Brazil’s October 2020 pre-salt oil output (Portuguese) ratcheting up by a notable six percent compared to a year earlier, to average just over 2.5 million barrels daily. This sees offshore pre-salt oil production responsible for 85.5 percent of Brazil’s total oil production compared to 81 percent for the equivalent period during 2019. Nevertheless, spending cuts by energy majors including Petrobras and the shut-in of uneconomic wells because of the pandemic, were responsible for Brazil’s overall October hydrocarbon production falling 2.6 percent year over year to an average of just under 3.7 million barrels of oil equivalent daily.

    Clearly, while the pandemic has hit Brazil’s oil industry causing production to fall because of savage budget cuts and well shut-ins it appears to have done no material long-term damage. There are signs that pre-salt oil production will keep growing at a solid clip fueled by demand from Asian refiners. That will be further boosted by stronger demand for crude oil and refined products as vaccines are rolled out, the pandemic eases and the global economy returns growth. It has been estimated by the US EIA that world oil consumption will rise by six percent year over year during 2021 to 98 million barrels daily. For these reasons Brazil’s oil production will grow significantly with Petrobras, which for October was responsible for 73 percent of the country’s oil output, targeting oil production of 2.7 million barrels daily by 2025.