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| 2021-01-15 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据世界天然气网1月12日消息 独立的能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源分析了2020年与天然气有关的活动，并发表了一份报告，其中提供了关键数据以及对该行业未来的长期展望。 到2020年，全球天然气产量估计下降了3.6％。雷斯塔德能源公司估算的总产量约为39180亿立方米。 疫情影响最大的天然气生产地区是北美，估计产量从2019年下降470亿立方米，到2020年降至11030亿立方米。对天然气的需求没有石油下降那么多，仅记录在案下降了2.5％，估计为3.84万亿立方米。亚洲的需求仍然相对强劲，而欧洲的消费量同比下降了约7％，至约400亿立方米。非洲为260亿立方米。 随着新工厂的投产（主要在美国），液化能力提高了5％，达到每年4.64亿吨。据估计，美国的年产能已达到7100万吨（+ 42％）。 2020年，全球液化天然气进口量增长了3％，达到3.63亿吨。在中国的推动下，亚洲液化天然气需求同比增长了4％。上半年欧洲进口保持强劲。 对于2040年的前景，雷斯塔能源预计，到2040年，全球天然气产量将增长24％，达到48570亿立方米，其中大部分来自北美，其次是俄罗斯和中东。 到2040年，全球天然气需求将增长26％，达到48670亿立方米，其中亚洲需求将是最大的增长。 他们预计欧洲的环境政策和可再生能源的增长将导致需求从2024年开始下降，与2020年的需求相比，到2040年非洲大陆的总需求损失将达到430亿立方米。由于预计将宣布新的环境政策，美国需求也处于危险之中。 到2040年，全球液化能力将达到每年总计8.86亿吨，比2020年增加91％。 到2040年，全球LNG产量预计将达到6.72亿吨，比2020年增长79％。美国整个LNG产量将大幅增长，达到2.03亿吨。卡塔尔还将继续成为推动中东出口的主要LNG参与者，莫桑比克帮助非洲重新回到LNG市场。预计亚洲将吸收大部分增长的液化天然气供应，以推动不断增长的电力需求。中国、印度、巴基斯坦、泰国和孟加拉国也将推动增长。预计随着管道进口的普及，欧洲的进口量将下降。 吴恒磊 编译自 世界天然气 原文如下： Rystad Energy: 2020 gas production exceeded demand Rystad Energy, the independent energy research and business intelligence company, analyzed the gas-related activity of 2020 and published a report that offers key figures and a long-term outlook on the future of the industry. In 2020, Global natural gas production is estimated to have dropped by 3.6 per cent. Rystad Energy approximates the total produced figure at around 3,918 billion cubic meteres. The gas-producing region that the pandemic impacted the most is North America, with production estimated to have dropped by 47 billion cubic meteres from 2019 to 1,103 billion cubic meteres in 2020. Demand for gas did not fall as much as for oil, recording only a 2.5 per cent decline to an estimated 3,840 billion cubic meteres. Demand in Asia remained relatively strong, while European consumption dropped by around 7 per cent year-on-year, or by around 40 billion cubic meteres. Africa resulted in 26 billion cubic meteres. As new plants started operations, mainly in the US, liquefaction capacity grew by 5 per cent, reaching 464 million tonnes per annum. US capacity is estimated to have reached 71 million tonnes per annum (+42 per cent). Global LNG imports grew by 3 per cent to 363 million tonnes in 2020. Asian LNG demand grew 4 per cent year-on-year, driven by China. European imports remained strong during the first half of the year. As for outlook towards 2040, Rystad Energy expects global natural gas production to grow by 24 per cent to 4,857 billion cubic meteres in 2040, with most additions coming from North America, followed by Russia and the Middle East. Global natural gas demand is set to increase through 2040 by 26 per cent to 4,867 billion cubic meteres, with Asian demand being the largest addition. They expect environmental policies in Europe and growth in renewables to lead to a decline in demand from 2024, with the total demand losses on the continent reaching 43 billion cubic meteres in 2040, compared to 2020 demand. US demand is also at risk due to new environmental policies that are expected to be announced. Global liquefaction capacity is to reach a total of 886 million tonnes per annum by 2040, which would be a 91 per cent increase from 2020. The world’s LNG production is anticipated to reach 672 million tonnes in 2040, which is a 79 per cent growth from 2020. US is to witness a significant rise in LNG production amounting to +203 million tonnes for the whole of North America. Qatar will also continue to be a key LNG player driving Middle Eastern exports, with Mozambique helping put Africa back on the LNG map. Asia is expected to absorb most of the growing LNG supplies to fuel the increasing power demand. China, India, Pakistan, Thailand and Bangladesh will also drive the growth. European imports are predicted to drop as pipeline imports are accessible. |
