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| 2021-01-19 来源： |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网1月14日报道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)周三上调了对关键天然气基准价格的预测，称供应下降和亚洲和欧洲天气转冷，形成了一场“完美的看涨风暴”。 该公司认为，由于欧洲西北部的天气变得更为寒冷，以及欧洲西北部液化天然气(LNG)供应的降幅超出预期，欧洲的平衡将更加紧张。 高盛将冬季剩余时间以及2021年和2022年日历年的荷兰产权转让基金（TTF）天然气价格预测从每百万英国热量单位6.65美元，5.63美元，6.03美元分别上调至每百万英国热量单位8.30美元，6.72美元和6.48美元。 周三欧洲基准荷兰未来一月天然气合约从前一交易日逾两年高位回落。 尽管高盛预计煤炭市场的紧张状况将从夏季开始缓解，但它预计哥伦比亚煤炭供应的恢复速度将慢于预期，这意味着TTF天然气价格将在稍后走高。 该机构还表示，我们还将2021/22年冬季、2022年夏季和2022/23年冬季的TTF预测从此前的每百万英热5.95美元、5.85美元和6.75美元上调至6.60美元、6.30美元和6.90美元。 高盛分析师在一份报告中表示，供应中断、运输延迟和强劲的液化天然气需求，以及日本繁重的核电站维护和东北亚到2021年开始的寒冷，已显著收紧了市场。 该机构还将其对2020/21年冬季剩余时间、2021年和2022年日历年日本韩国指标(JKM)预测从此前的每百万英热12.65美元、7.56美元和7.37美元分别上调至14.30美元、8.73美元和7.85美元。 高盛重申其对纽约商品交易所（NYMEX）今年夏天天然气价格大幅上涨的预期，以帮助纠正其认为每天25亿立方英尺的市场失衡直至2021年10月，并维持其2021年夏季美国天然气3.25美元/百万英热单位的价格预测。 郝芬 译自 能源世界网 原文如下： Goldman forecasts 'perfect storm' for global gas markets Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for key natural gas price benchmarks on Wednesday, saying falling supplies and colder weather in Asia and Europe made for a "perfect bullish storm". It sees European balances even tighter on colder weather revisions in North-Western Europe and a deeper-than-expected drop in NW European Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) deliveries. Goldman lifted its Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price forecasts for the rest of the winter, and calendar years 2021 and 2022, to $8.30 per one million British thermal units (mmBtu), $6.72/mmBtu and $6.48/mmBtu from $6.65, $5.63 and $6.03 previously. The European benchmark Dutch month-ahead gas contract retreated slightly on Wednesday from an over two-year peak scaled in the previous session. While Goldman expects tightness in coal markets to moderate from the summer, it sees a slower-than-expected return of Colombian coal supplies, implying higher TTF gas prices later. "We also raise our 2021/22 winter, 2022 summer and 2022/23 winter TTF forecasts to $6.60/mmBtu, $6.30/mmBtu and $6.90/mmBtu from $5.95, $5.85 and $6.75 previously," the bank said. Supply disruptions, shipping delays and strong LNG demand, supported by heavy nuclear maintenance in Japan and a cold start to 2021 in North-Eastern Asia, have significantly tightened the market, Goldman analysts said in a note. The bank also raised its Japan Korea Marker (JKM) forecasts for balance of winter for 2020/21, and calendar years 2021 and 2022, to $14.30/mmBtu, $8.73/mmBtu and $7.85/mmBtu from $12.65, $7.56 and $7.37 previously. Goldman reiterated its expectation for a significant upside to NYMEX gas prices this summer to help correct what it sees as a 2.5 billion cubic feet per day market imbalance through October 2021, and maintained its $3.25/mmBtu 2021 summer U.S. gas price forecast. |
