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| 2021-01-22 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据1月19日CNBC报道，周二，国际能源署（IEA）下调了2021年全球石油需求预期，理由是新冠肺炎病例飙升，新的封锁措施将进一步限制市场流动性。 国际能源署表示，预计今年全球石油日需求量将回升550万桶，至9660万桶，较上月预期下调了30万桶。此前，由于新冠肺炎疫情重创全球石油市场，2020年石油日消耗量出现了前所未有的880万桶的暴跌。 在IEA发布最新的石油市场报告之际，各国继续实施严格的公共卫生措施，试图遏制病毒传播，欧洲和中国部分地区已实施了封锁措施。 IEA表示，由于政府出台了更严格的旅行限制计划，预计今年前三个月的石油需求增长将略有下降。IEA将第一季度石油需求预期下调至9410万桶/天，接近一年前的水平，与12月石油市场报告预期相比，向下修正了60万桶。 该机构在报告中表示:“全球疫苗的推出，使今年的基本面走上了一个更强劲的轨道，在2020年市场空前崩溃之后，供应和需求都回到了增长模式。但由于许多国家重新实行封锁措施，对燃料销售构成压力，石油需求将需要更多时间才能完全恢复。” 在石油价格方面，最近几周受到对新冠肺炎疫苗推广的乐观情绪和欧佩克主要国家沙特阿拉伯意外削减石油产量的支撑，油价已经反弹。然而，相对缓慢的疫苗接种速度，使人们无法确认经济恢复的准确时间。 周二上午，国际基准布伦特原油期货价格报每桶55.26美元，涨幅超过0.9%，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格报每桶52.51美元，涨幅约为0.3%。这两个基准股指前一交易日均下跌逾2.2%，创下12月21日以来的最大单日跌幅。 值得一提的是，欧佩克+在2020年创纪录地削减了石油产量，以支称原油价格。欧佩克+最初同意减产970万桶/天，随后将减产幅度降低至770万桶/天，到2021年1月份削减规模降至720万桶/天。此后，沙特阿拉伯表示，计划在2月和3月每日额外减产100万桶，以阻止库存增加。 上周，欧佩克维持其2021年全球石油需求预测不变，该组织预计，需求将比去年同期增加590万桶，达到9590万桶/天。 王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC 原文如下： IEA cuts 2021 oil demand outlook as new Covid lockdowns weigh on fuel sales The International Energy Agency on Tuesday cut its 2021 global oil demand forecast, citing soaring Covid-19 cases and renewed lockdown measures that will further limit mobility. The IEA said it now expects world oil demand to recover by 5.5 million barrels per day to 96.6 million this year. That reflects a downward revision of 0.3 million barrels from last month’s assessment and follows an unprecedented collapse of 8.8 million barrels per day last year as the coronavirus pandemic battered global oil markets. The IEA’s latest oil market report comes as countries continue to implement strict public health measures in an attempt to curb virus spread, with lockdowns imposed in Europe and parts of China. The Paris-based energy agency said oil demand growth was projected to fall slightly during the first three months of the year in the wake of tougher government plans that call for additional travel restrictions. This is expected to curb worldwide mobility once again, prompting the IEA to trim its first-quarter forecast for oil demand growth to 94.1 million barrels per day. That would see oil demand return to near year-ago levels and reflects a downward revision of 0.6 million barrels from December’s oil market report. “The global vaccine roll-out is putting fundamentals on a stronger trajectory for the year, with both supply and demand shifting back into growth mode following 2020′s unprecedented collapse,” the IEA said in its closely-watched report. “But it will take more time for oil demand to recover fully as renewed lockdowns in a number of countries weigh on fuel sales,” it added. Oil prices Oil prices have rallied in recent weeks, supported by optimism over Covid vaccine rollouts and a surprise oil production cut from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia. However, the relatively slow pace of inoculations has raised doubts over how soon economies can recover. International benchmark Brent crude futures traded at $55.26 a barrel on Tuesday morning, up more than 0.9%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $52.51, around 0.3% higher. Both benchmarks fell more than 2.2% in the previous session, notching their worst daily performance since Dec. 21. OPEC and its non-OPEC allies, an alliance sometimes referred to as OPEC+, cut oil production by a record amount in 2020 in an effort to support crude prices, as strict public health measures worldwide coincided with a fuel demand shock. OPEC+ initially agreed to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day, before easing cuts to 7.7 million and eventually scaling back further to 7.2 million from January. OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia has since said it plans to cut output by an extra 1 million barrels per day in February and March to stop inventories from building up. Last week, OPEC kept its 2021 forecast for worldwide oil demand unchanged. The 13-member group anticipated demand growth to increase by 5.9 million barrels per day year on year to average 95.9 million. |
