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| 2021-01-26 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据1月24日ArabNews报道，自1月初以来，油价一直保持稳定，布伦特(Brent)原油价格在每桶55美元左右徘徊。布伦特原油价格本周收盘微涨至每桶55.41美元，而西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格收盘微跌至每桶52.27美元。 自1月初以来，油价在每桶50美元以上的窄幅区间内波动是健康的，尽管人们对石油需求增长感到悲观，并且对美国采取措施恢复能源需求增长的预期仍持怀疑态度。美国能源信息署(EIA)报告称，美国炼油利用率升至82.5%，为2020年3月以来最高水平，美国商业原油库存每周意外增加4.4个百分点。 尽管国际能源署(IEA)发出悲观信号，但油价仍保持稳定。IEA认为，由于几个国家的新一轮封锁影响了石油需求复苏，石油需求还需要更多时间才能完全恢复。 在石油输出国组织（OPEC）和EIA发布的其他市场公告中，IEA发布的1月份石油市场报告是最悲观的月度报告。该机构预计，今年石油需求将反弹至9660万桶/天，比2020年水平增加550万桶/天。 尽管由于封锁和疫苗接种挑战，IEA下调了2021年全球石油需求预测，但它仍预计2021年下半年石油消费将大幅反弹，全球库存将继续减少。 IEA报告称，2020年第四季度全球石油库存下降258万桶/天，此前初步数据显示年底前石油库存大幅下降。IEA报告称，经合组织库存连续第四个月下降，达到1.667亿桶，但仍高于过去五年的平均水平。该公司预测，在2020年减少730万桶/天之后，全球炼油厂产量预计将在2021年反弹450万桶/天。 IEA的月度报告在短期内引发了人们对现货原油市场疲软的担忧，IEA也承认欧佩克在稳定市场方面发挥了强有力的作用。颇具争议的是，该机构认为，以目前的价格，大部分页岩油产量是有利可图的，这暗示了页岩油可能会威胁到欧佩克的市场份额。 此外，美国页岩油生产商对油价上涨做出了迅速反应，赢得了欧佩克生产商的市场份额。然而，即使美国页岩油钻井公司连续近3个月增加石油钻井平台，运营的钻井平台数量仍少于一年前的一半，只有289个。 王佳晶 摘译自 ArabNews 原文如下： WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Despite long-term challenges, oil prices remain in healthy range Oil prices have been stable since early January, with Brent crude price hovering around $55. Brent crude closed the week slightly higher at $55.41 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed slightly lower at $52.27 per barrel. Oil price movement since early January in a narrow range above $50 is healthy, despite pessimism over an increase in oil demand, while expectations of US President Joe Biden taking steps to revive energy demand growth are still doubtful. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a hike in US refining utilization to its highest since March 2020, at 82.5 percent. The EIA reported a surprise weekly surge in US commercial crude stocks by 4.4 million barrels. Oil prices remained steady despite the bearish messages sent from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which believes it will take more time for oil demand to recover fully as renewed lockdowns in several countries weighed on oil demand recovery. The IEA’s January Oil Market Report came as the most pessimistic monthly report among other market bulletins from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and EIA. It forecast oil demand will bounce back to 96.6 million bpd this year, an increase of 5.5 million bpd over 2020 levels. Though the IEA has lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2021 due to lockdowns and vaccination challenges, it still expects a sharp rebound in oil consumption in the second half of 2021, and the continuation of global inventory depletion. The IEA reported global oil stocks fell by 2.58 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2020 after preliminary data showed hefty drawdowns toward the end of the year. The IEA reported OECD industry stocks fell for a fourth consecutive month at 166.7 million barrels above the last five-year average. It forecast that global refinery throughput is expected to rebound by 4.5 million bpd in 2021, after a 7.3 million bpd drop in 2020. The IEA monthly report has led to some short term concern about weakness in the physical crude spot market, and the IEA has acknowledged OPEC’s firm role in stabilizing the market. Controversially, the IEA believes that a big chunk of shale oil production is profitable at current prices, and hence insinuated that shale oil might threaten OPEC market share. It also believes that US shale oil producers have quickly responded to oil price gains, winning market share over OPEC producers. However, even if US shale oil drillers added more oil rigs for almost three months in a row, the number of operating rigs is still less than half that of a year ago, at 289 rigs. ————————————————————————————- |
