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| 2021-01-29 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
中国石化新闻网讯 据1月26日Trade Arabia报道，DNV GL发布的最新研究发现，随着油气公司寻求长期转型，油气行业预计今年将增加对未来能源系统的投资。 创纪录的三分之二(66%)的资深油气专业人士表示，其公司正在积极适应2021年的低碳能源资产组合。约57%的受访者表示，其公司将增加对可再生能源的投资，高于2020年的44%。约一半(48%)的受访者预计，其公司将增加对绿色或脱碳天然气的投资。 只有五分之一(21%)的受访者表示，其公司将在2021年增加石油项目的投资，因为石油行业越来越接受世界石油需求已见顶或将在中短期见顶的观念。不过，他们对天然气投资增长的预期稳定在37%。 大多数资深油气专业人士预计，这些投资转变将导致能源行业出现更广泛的资产重组。78%的受访者认为，未来一年内行业整合将会增加。战略调整还可能涉及资产和业务的出售，63%的受访者预计，油气公司将进行更多的资产分拆和剥离。 尽管在新冠肺炎疫情爆发和石油和天然气市场崩溃后，市场对该行业增长的信心崩溃。只有39%的资深油气专业人士对2021年的油气行业增长有信心，这一比例低于去年的66%。 DNV GL对2021年油气行业的展望表明，随着投资者重新评估石油和天然气项目融资的风险，以及政府在疫情爆发后投入数十亿美元以实施绿色能源发展战略，投资优先级正在发生变化。 从2020年开始，从欧洲到中国，净零排放政策开始大量涌现，并在美国登上了议事日程。长期来看，净零排放政策有潜力推动全球能源系统的深度脱碳，它们已经改变了油气行业的发展方向。 石油和天然气行业正在经历12年来的第三次重大衰退，而2021年该行业最显著的变化是资本从化石燃料转移。 因为这次新冠肺炎疫情的爆发，金融市场已经看到了石油需求可能出现的峰值预期，并越来越多地考虑到社会对未来脱碳的意向变化。脱碳已经变成了当务之急，有迹象表明，油气行业可能会投资于能源转型，而不是为了摆脱目前的危机。 到2021年，削减成本仍将是首要任务。63%的受访者表示，如果2021年油价平均在40-50美元/桶，他们的公司仍将获得可接受的利润。然而，有迹象表明，传统的成本削减方法的效用正在达到极限。 值得注意的是，石油和天然气行业并没有像2014年经济低迷后那样大幅缩减支出。尽管预计在未来一年维持或增加资本支出的受访者比例已从2020年的72%降至62%，但这远高于上次经济衰退后的43%。 在上一次经济衰退期间，石油行业削减成本，等待石油需求上升，然后重新投资石油和天然气。尽管一些业内人士预计该行业将迅速复苏，但研究显示，大多数人都把目光投向了更长期的转型投资，投向将使该行业脱碳的项目。 尽管市场对2021年行业增长的信心崩溃，但对未来脱碳的信心越来越大。 王佳晶 摘译自 Trade Arabia 原文如下： Oil and gas industry doubles down on transformational green investments The oil and gas industry expects to boost investment in the energy systems of the future this year, as companies seek to transform for the long term, new research published by DNV GL finds. A record two-thirds (66%) of senior oil and gas professionals report that their organisation is actively adapting to a less carbon-intensive energy mix in 2021, up from just 44% in 2018. Some 57% plan to increase investment in renewables, up from 44% last year, half (48%) expect to increase investment in green or decarbonised gas. Just a fifth (21%) say they will increase investment in oil projects in 2021, as the sector increasingly comes to terms with the notion that the world’s demand for oil has peaked or will peak in the short to medium term. Expectations for an increase in natural gas investment remain steady at 37%. The majority of senior oil and gas professionals expect these shifts in investment will lead to a wider reshaping of the industry. Eight-in-ten (78%) believe there will be increased consolidation in the year ahead, up from 64% one year ago. Strategic reorientation may also involve asset and business sales, with 63% expecting more demergers, divestments and spin-offs, up from 46% last year. Transformational investments come despite a crash in confidence for industry growth following the Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent oil and gas market crash. Only 39% of senior oil and gas professionals are confident about industry growth in 2021, down from 66% last year. Turmoil and Transformation, DNV GL’s outlook for the oil and gas industry in 2021, suggests priorities are shifting as investors reassess the risks of financing oil and gas projects, and as governments and industry pour billions into green recovery strategies following the Covid-19 pandemic. The research is based on a survey of more than 1,000 senior oil and gas professionals and in-depth interviews with industry executives. “Net-zero climate policies began to proliferate in 2020, from Europe to China, and made it onto the table in the US. Long term, net zero policies have the potential to drive deep decarbonisation of the world’s energy system, and they are already changing the direction of the oil and gas industry,” said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO of DNV GL. The oil and gas industry is moving through its third major downturn in 12 years, but the outlook for 2021 is influenced by the possibility that this downturn may be different from those of the past. Perhaps the most significant difference for the industry for 2021, is the shift in capital away from fossil fuels. “The financial markets – through the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic – have seen what peak oil demand could look like, and are increasingly factoring in changing sentiment in society towards a decarbonised future. Decarbonisation has moved from something on the horizon to an immediate priority, and there are signs that our sector may invest to transform rather than cut its way out of the present crisis,” said Eriksen. Cost cutting will still be a universal priority (96%) for 2021, but the industry is already lean. A resilient 63% say their organisation will still achieve acceptable profits if the oil price averages between USD40 to 50 per barrel in 2021. However, there are signs that traditional cost cutting methods are hitting their limits. Significantly, the oil and gas industry is not hitting the spending brakes as hard as it did after the downturn in 2014. While the proportion of respondents expecting to maintain or increase capex in the year ahead has fallen to 62% – down from 72% going into 2020 – this is much higher than the 43% recorded following the last downturn. The industry cut costs and waited for oil demand to rise during the last downturn, then renewed investment in oil and gas. While some in the industry are expecting a quick recovery, our research shows that most are looking longer term to transformational investments – to projects that will decarbonise the industry. “While we see a crash in confidence for industry growth in 2021, we see growing confidence in the opportunities that lie in a decarbonised future,” said Danielsen. |
