沙特阿美或将出售更多新股

    据今日油价1月29日报道，全球最大的石油公司沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司（Saudi Aramco）即将再次登上新闻头条。沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼（MBS）在被称为“沙漠中的达沃斯”的未来投资倡议峰会（FII）上，发表了一份出人意料的声明，称未来几年，沙特阿美将有更多的股份待售。他的声明令人惊讶之处，不仅在其内容，还在其发布的时机。在全球股票交易所遭受重创之际，竟然暗示可能会出售数十亿美元的股份。分析人士仍在试图理解这一决定，因为目前油气行业正陷入困境。但可以肯定的是，围绕这家石油巨头下一次股票发行的炒作将开始升温。要知道，2019年，沙特阿美首次公开募股意外成功，带来了惊人的256亿美元收入，这让投资者们记忆犹新。

    尽管MBS的言论令许多人感到意外，但沙特主权财富基金负责人此前曾提到过存在出售更多沙特阿美股份的可能。沙特阿美的所有者公共投资基金（PIF）表示，如果市场条件成熟，该公司可能考虑出售更多股份。目前，沙特阿美的股价在34.75里亚尔（9.26美元）左右，仍高于其首次公开募股32里亚尔的价格。目前公司总市值为1.86万亿美元。

    对此，市场应该考虑一下几方面因素。在PIF和MBS经济多样化计划中，沙特阿美的总体地位是明确的。如果没有这个全球石油、天然气和石化巨头作为沙特经济的主要支柱之一，任何计划或将无法实施。目前，石油和天然气收入仍是沙特经济的主要支柱。沙特正在向着多样化努力，建立一个新的、有弹性的经济，以提供更多的就业机会，保持国际市场地位。然而，即使沙特PIF正在向经济注入数十亿美元，所需的巨额投资仍是一个主要障碍。如备受瞩目的Giga项目，NEOM、Red Sea Islands和Qiddiya，还需要为国内外的初创企业和中小企业增长提供必要的推动力。PIF上周的战略陈述突显了这些计划是多么地雄心勃勃，表明它打算在未来一年将总资产翻一番。尽管如此，政府对沙特阿美的收入需求仍在不断增长，即使沙特政府有能力发行大量政府债券，但由于全球金融市场价格低廉且流动性强，政府的预算赤字仍然很高。作为沙特唯一真正赚钱的公司之一，沙特阿美现在有双重目标。不仅要成为沙特经济多样化计划的主要财政支持者，同时也要为填补预算缺口提供必要的现金流入。

    参考大多数竞争对手的情况，沙特阿美的整体现金流状况还是非常乐观的。其利润依旧惊人，一点也不像壳牌（Shell）、英国石油（BP）、埃克森美孚（Exxon）或道达尔（Total）这些国际石油公司。但值得注意的是，沙特阿美的债务水平有所上升。沙特阿美新发行的债券可能会威胁到其未来的现金流和“2030年愿景”的成功。一个更经济、更有吸引力的选择是在市场上发行新股，因为这对于公司所有者PIF没有实际的风险。通过将另外5%-10%的股份推向市场，沙特阿美不仅可以获得1800亿美元（以目前市值计算）的收入，还可以进军西方金融市场和交易所。

    朱小庆吉 摘译自 今日油价

    原文如下：

    Why Saudi Arabia Wants To Sell More Of Its Oil Giant

    Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, is about to make headlines again. In a surprise statement by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during an interview at the Future Investment Initiative (FII), also called the “Davos in the Desert”, the crown prince claimed that there will be more shares of Aramco up for sale in the coming years. MBS’s statement was surprising not only for its content but also for its timing. While global stock exchanges are suffering, the Saudi crown prince is hinting at a potential multi-billion share sale. Analysts are still trying to understand the decision, with the oil and gas industry struggling as it is at the moment. But you can be sure that the hype around the oil giant’s next offering will now begin to build. The unexpected success of the Aramco IPO in 2019, bringing in a staggering $25.6 billion, will be fresh in the mind of investors.

    While MBS’s remarks surprised many, a possible sale of more Aramco shares had been brought up by the head of Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund previously. The Public Investment Fund (PIF), the owner of Aramco, stated that the company may consider selling more shares if market conditions were right. At present, Aramco shares are still valued at around 34.75 riyals ($9.26), which is still way above its IPO price of 32 riyals. The total value of the company is currently set at $1.86 trillion.

    The market should be looking at several factors before reacting to the news of this new share deal. Aramco’s overall position within the PIF’s and MBS’s economic diversification plans is clear. Without the global oil, gas, and petrochemical giant as one of the main pillars of Saudi economic future, no plans can or will be implemented. At present, Saudi Arabia remains a rentier-state, in which oil and gas revenue is the main pillar of its economic strength. Diversification efforts are under way to build a new and resilient economy in the country, providing employment for Saudis while supporting the survival of the Kingdom as it is. The immense amount of investment needed, however, is still a major stumble block, even though the Saudi PIF is pumping billions of dollars into the economy. It has invested in high-profile Giga Projects, such as NEOM, Red Sea Islands, and Qiddiya, as well as targeting start-ups and SME’s in and outside of the Kingdom to provide the necessary push for growth. The PIF strategic presentation last week highlighted just how ambitious these plans were, indicating its intent to double total assets and investments in the coming year. Despite all of this, there is a growing demand for Aramco’s revenues. Even though the Saudi government is able to issue plenty of government bonds, as global financial markets are cheap and liquid, Riyadh’s budget deficits are still high. Aramco, as one of the only real money makers in the country, has a dual purpose at present. To be the main financial backer of the Kingdom’s diversification plans, but also to provide the necessary influx of cash to plug the holes in the budget.

    Aramco’s overall cash position is still very rosy, especially when considering the situation of most of its competitors. Its profits are still staggering, not at all like IOCs such as Shell, BP, Exxon, or Total. But Aramco’s debt levels have also increased. New debt issuances of Aramco may threaten both its future cash flow and the success of MBS’ dream Vision 2030. A much cheaper and more attractive option is to put new shares in the market, as there is no real risk to the owner of the company, PIF. By pushing another 5-10% of shares to the market, Aramco could not only reap a possible $180 billion (at current market value) but could also enter Western financial markets and exchanges. Even with a Biden Administration in the U.S., a Johnson government in the UK, and Merkel 2.0 in Germany, Saudi money and politics remains a powerful influencing factor in global politics.