油价是否将升至每桶100美元？

    中国石化新闻网讯 据2月24日Gulf Today报道，尽管令人头晕目眩的油价暴跌，对许多交易员来说仍是新鲜事物，但有传言称，到明年年底，油价可能再次突破每桶100美元。

    阿塞拜疆Socar Trading SA预测，全球基准布伦特原油价格在未来18至24个月可能达到三位数，美国银行预计，由于基本面改善和全球经济刺激，未来几年可能突破每桶100美元。投机者也开始行动起来，增加了期权市场对油价将在2022年12月之前达到所预期的水平的押注。

    这些观点是非常乐观的，但它们强调了在布伦特原油价格在一起期间跌至18年低点后上涨超过200%后，石油市场的信心有所增强。主要亚洲市场的需求已经反弹，而欧佩克+正在削减石油产量，而投资的缺乏也在遏制页岩油气的供应。高盛集团本周将第三季度预期上调10美元，至每桶75美元。

    近几日，对2022年12月布伦特原油合约油价升至每桶100美元以上的期权押注大幅增加，过去一周未平仓看涨头寸从500升至3950。

    在许多交易员的心目中，每桶100美元的价格事是一个特殊的大关口，此前，由于新兴市场的强劲需求吸引钻探者进入成本更加昂贵的地区，从深海海底到加拿大偏远的沥青砂，石油价格在这一水平上徘徊了几年。

    2014年，美国页岩油气公司证明了他们可以以低得多的成本开采大量能源，这一时代结束了。不过，尽管自那以后，市场已经无法达到所吹嘘的价格水平，但交易员们并没有忘记这一点。就在两年多前，主要的贸易公司仍是预测会达到每桶100美元，但最终却远远低于这个数字。

    市场对每桶100美元的预期与目前市场的普遍预期相差甚远。彭博社分析师预测显示，布伦特原油将在2025年前保持在每桶65美元以下，并且能否维持在这一水平仍存疑。彭博社的数据显示，欧佩克的减产是人为的，一旦全球需求从一起中复苏，该组织就有足够的闲置产能来满足任何供应的缺口。

    王佳晶 摘译自 Gulf Today

    原文如下：

    Oil prices to rise to $100? Rumblings are starting to emerge

    While oil’s dizzying collapse is still fresh for many traders, rumblings are starting to emerge that by the end of next year prices could once again top $100 a barrel.

    Azerbaijan’s Socar Trading SA predicts global benchmark Brent could hit triple digits in the next 18 to 24 months, and Bank of America sees potential spikes above $100 over the next few years on improving fundamentals and global stimulus. Speculators are also getting in on the action, increasing bets in the options market that oil will reach the vaunted level by December 2022.

    The views are ultra bullish, but they highlight increased confidence in the oil market after Brent rallied more than 200% after hitting an 18-year low during the pandemic. Demand has bounced back in key Asian markets, while OPEC+ is withholding barrels and a lack of investment is keeping shale supplies at bay. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. this week lifted its third-quarter forecast by $10 to $75 a barrel.

    Option bets on oil prices rising above $100 for the December 2022 Brent contract have jumped in recent days, with open interest on the calls rising from 500 to 3,950 in the past week.

    The $100 mark occupies a special place in the mind of many traders, as oil hovered around that level for several years in the early part of last decade as strong demand from emerging markets enticed drillers into ever more expensive locales, from deep ocean beds to Canada’s remote tar sands.

    That era ended in 2014, when U.S. shale firms proved they could pump massive amounts at far lower costs. But while the vaunted price level has been out of the market’s reach since then, it hasn’t been out of traders’ minds. It was just a little more than two years ago that major trading houses made $100 projections that ended up falling far short.

    Forecasts for $100 are far from the current consensus. The median analyst forecast compiled by Bloomberg has Brent staying below $65 a barrel through 2025. And there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of such a resurgence. For one, the OPEC cuts that have limited supply are artificial, and the cartel has enough spare capacity to meet any shortfall should demand rocket following a worldwide recovery from the pandemic, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.